The theory of the Fourth Turning suggests that history progresses in repetitive, predictable cycles lasting around 80-100 years. First described by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe in their 1997 book "The Fourth Turning", this generational perspective reveals how the collective personality of each living generation shapes the course of history.
The Turnings of History
At the core of the Fourth Turning theory are the four distinct eras known as turnings which comprise each historical cycle. Each turning spans approximately 20-22 years and has its own mood or attitude:
- First Turning (High) – A post-crisis era of strengthened institutions and weak individualism
- Second Turning (Awakening) – A period of spiritual exploration and personal autonomy
- Third Turning (Unraveling) – An increasing attack on institutions accompanied by weakened public confidence
- Fourth Turning (Crisis) – A decisive era of secular upheaval, when society passes through a great gate in history
The most recent historical cycle began after World War II, which the authors consider the last major crisis era or Fourth Turning. The post-war High turning of the late 1940s-1960s saw societal advancements that united the masses, such as the Space Program, while the Consciousness Revolution marked the Awakening turning of the 1960s-early 80s. The Culture Wars defined the Unraveling era of the mid 80s-00s, leading to today‘s Fourth Turning.
Our Modern Fourth Turning
Strauss and Howe predicted that the next Fourth Turning crisis period would begin in the mid-00s and last until the mid-2020s. Right on schedule, events marking its turbulent commencement included:
- 2008 global financial crisis
- COVID-19 pandemic
- Heightened domestic social unrest
- Deteriorating geopolitics
While seemingly ominous epochs, Fourth Turnings are not doomsday scenarios. Rather, they are decisive eras that forge dramatic societal transformation to restore solidarity. History suggests today‘s crisis will reshape America‘s economic, political, cultural and technological landscape before stability returns.
Previous Fourth Turning Eras
| Crisis Era | Years | Result |
|---|---|---|
| American Revolution | 1773–1794 | Birth of the United States of America |
| Civil War | 1857–1859 | Preserved federal union, ended slavery |
| Great Depression & World War II | 1929–1946 | America as global superpower |
| Current Era | 2005–2029 | Outcome TBD |
The table above demonstrates how decisive events arising from previous Fourth Turnings led to monumental societal shifts, often marking the end of an empire or birth of a new nation.
While the exact outcome remains uncertain, the theory suggests America will emerge from the current crisis transformed, with redefined policies, norms and global standing, yet with strengthened institutions to propel stability.
Generational Archetypes
A key component of the Fourth Turning theory is generational archetypes which describe common traits of an age group. Currently the archetypes are:
- Baby Boomers – Prophet archetype who grew up after WWII and are moving into elderhood
- Generation X – Nomad archetype who came of age during the Consciousness Revolution
- Millennials – Hero archetype who were children around the new millennium but are stepping up during the crisis
- Generation Z – Artist archetype whose childhood has been defined by the Fourth Turning
The passing of generations from each archetype drives the endless repetition of historical cycles. Their collective persona both determines and is determined by the turnings.
Cyclical History in the Information Age?
Critics argue that modern society differs too significantly for the Fourth Turning cycles to remain predictive. Access to limitless information could equip younger generations to alter their prescribed archetypal path. Or it could further embed divisions that shorten cycle length.
Yet for all the connective capabilities of the Digital Age, Americans today exhibit profound disconnect regarding shared values and vision for the future. This supports Strauss & Howe’s core precept of the theory – that the natural order demands societal decay be punctuated by cataclysmic upheaval to reaffirm common purpose.
And while the Information Age has unlocked individual freedoms, it has also bred disillusionment. Cynicism grows regarding institutional trust at the very time decisive leadership is most needed. Perhaps this period of boundless chaos will spark hunger for moral authority, paving the way for institutions to reclaim esteem.
Just as the Fourth Turning marks society’s passage through a crucible, it also galvanizes generational coming of age. Those growing up amidst crisis suffer youthful exploration curtailed by economic and social turmoil. Yet this shared experience fuels intense intra-generational bonding.
Millennials and Gen Z shift family formation and career plans accordingly, even as many Boomers postpone retirement. Yet resilience emerges in those forced to endure uncertainty at vulnerable ages which endows a sense of purpose.
Of Crisis and Catharsis
My Gen X peers describe chaotic childhoods that prepared us to orient amidst instability, although rampant cynicism pervades. We seek catharsis in humor and escapist diversion. Mostly we strive in solitude – buying homes, raising kids, rebooting careers – hoping to model a pathway to normalcy.
Millennials exhibit a more earnest philosophical bent, searching for meaning amidst the maelstrom. Some achieve self-actualization by building families and communities. Others engage activism channeling idealism into political reform movements.
As for Gen Z, burgeoning independence is suspended as their coming of age collides with crisis. Perhaps this pause will grant further perspective to spot blind spots of prior generations. Their artist archetype may yet pave the way for societal renaissance – or regression into further disenfranchisement.
The jury is out on whether Millennials and Gen Z will maintain lifelong bonds forged from shared crisis imprinting. Will enduring camaraderie lead them to heal societal rifts as they inherit leadership? Or will distrust in dilapidated institutions divert their cohorts down destructive paths?
Passing the Game Controller
As a passionate gamer, I can’t help but view the Fourth Turning crisis through the lens of an epic quest, with distinct generational archetypes assuming gameplay roles.
Boomers activate as sage prophets, casting visions of restoration. Gen X supplies solo rogues battling behind the scenes to unlock progress.
High-achieving Millennials represent our warrior heroes, leading teams to the front lines. Creative Gen Z mages wield the magical talent to manifest solutions.
Of course, no successful raid can happen without forging alliances across generations and skill sets. Perhaps what this crisis yearns for is a multi-generational party willing to trust in each other’s potential.
One thing remains certain – the game clock hasn’t run out yet. Despite rampant uncertainty, our society retains full health points and mana energy.
As veterans of past turnings confirm, the path beyond chaos demands solidarity to advance civilization levels. While individual gameplay differs, collectively we progress by aligning to EXP grind beyond divisions. Choosing synergistic empathy fuels the power-ups we need to clear this epic era.
Just as the pivot from Unraveling to Crisis sparks a societal boss battle, crossing into the First Turning high spells victory. Having leveled up institutions and values, we together activate the Bonfire of the Vanities to ignite the next cycle.
Thus the Fourth Turning remains cyclical – not as a doom looper, but an endless staircase. Each time we master the lesson at hand, we graduate stronger to evolve ever upwards.