Heavyweight strikers Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima are set to collide in a potential slugfest at UFC 291 in Las Vegas. Both men are coming off emphatic knockout wins and seek to vault themselves back into title contention with a statement victory. While the bout‘s unpredictable nature guarantees fireworks, a closer examination of the stylistic matchup reveals which fighter holds the advantage.
Recent Momentum and Performances
Before analyzing stylistic specifics, it‘s worth reviewing both fighter‘s current form over recent bouts.
Lewis rebounded from consecutive losses by delivering one of his signature "swang and bang" finishes last November. The stoic Texan absorbed several bruising body kicks from Sergey Spivak before uncorking a perfectly timed right hand for the KO. However, Lewis‘s most encouraging performance came 16 months prior – a patient, tactical battle against perennial contender Curtis Blaydes.
Rather than chasing the early finish, Lewis remained composed while conceding takedowns to Blaydes, an elite NCAA wrestler. Then just seconds into the second frame, "The Black Beast" unleashed a precise uppercut as Blaydes shot in for another level change. The technical brilliance of this knockout showcased a more cerebral, measured Lewis compared to the wild slugger of old.
| Fight | Result | Performance Takeaways |
|---|---|---|
| Lewis vs. Spivak | Win by KO, R1 | – Devastating power still present – Absorbed significant damage early |
| Lewis vs. Blaydes | Win by KO, R2 | – Improved fight IQ and strategy – Patient, then explosive with counters |
| Lewis vs. Daukaus | Win by KO, R1 | – Vintage Lewis swing-for-fences style – Questionable cardio/durability |
Conversely, de Lima rode a two-fight skid before reverting to his muay thai roots last spring to conquer Andrei Arlovski. The 6-time Brazilian striking champion battered Arlovski‘s legs and midsection with thudding kicks from range before sealing the deal with nasty knees in the clinch. This commanding showcase marked de Lima‘s first UFC stoppage since 2016 as he reinforced his world-class standup skills.
Earlier in 2020, de Lima endured a grueling back-and-forth affair with perennial contender Alexander Volkov. The heavy-handed southpaw repeatedly rocked Volkov with blistering combinations, also showcasing a granite chin in the process. He ultimately fell just short on the cards, but proved his durability and diverse attacking arsenal against top-tier opposition.
| Fight | Result | Performance Takeaways |
|---|---|---|
| de Lima vs. Arlovski | Win by TKO, R2 | -Relentless muay thai attack – Signature kicks/knees on display |
| de Lima vs. Volkov | Loss by Dec | -Hurt Volkov badly but faded late – Excellent combination punching |
| de Lima vs. Hardy | Loss by KO, R1 | – Overaggression led to counters – Questionable chin/recovery |
Stylistic Breakdown and Key Factors
These recent performances provide critical glimpses into the strengths Lewis and de Lima will look to leverage on fight night. Now let‘s examine the specific skills and tendencies that could prove decisive to the matchup.
Striking Statistics
As seasoned strikers with contrasting yet formidable skill sets, most expect Lewis vs. de Lima to unfold on the feet. A comparison of key striking metrics reveals visible advantages that align with each man‘s path to victory:
| Striking Metric | Lewis | de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Knockdowns per 15 min. | 1.47 (1st among active UFC HWs) | 0.48 (9th) |
| Strike Absorption Rate | 6.14 (Highest) | 4.37 (Top 15) |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 3.35 | 5.36 (1st) |
| Striking Defense % | 36% | 60% (Top 5) |
The numbers quantify Lewis‘s unrivaled knockout power alongside defensive liabilities that often leave him vulnerable. Meanwhile, de Lima lands volume at the highest rate in the division while showcasing sharper fundamentals defensively. These conflicting strengths set the table for a violent collision of force versus technique.
Cage Wrestling and Grappling
Though known primarily as strikers, Lewis and de Lima both wield underrated wrestling and anti-wrestling skills. Again, the statistical data displays the contrast:
| Wrestling/Grappling Metric | Lewis | de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedown Defense % | 92% (5th in UFC HW history) | 63% |
| Takedowns Landed per 15 min. | 0.99 | 1.94 (4th among active UFC HWs) |
Lewis owns an elite UFC heavyweight resume when defending opponents‘ shot attempts. Yet de Lima has shown more confidence implementing his offensive wrestling recently.
Still, neither man has faced a submission threat or shown a desire to grapple since early in their careers. It‘s unlikely this fight shifts to the mat for long unless fatigue sets in. Nonetheless, the aptitude to secure timely takedowns and nullify them remains a potential factor.
Intangibles
As this is a scheduled 25-minute affair, variables like cardio efficiency, damage tolerance, and mental composure loom large. Lewis and de Lima share 38 years of age and similar wear-and-tear, so youthful advantages are a non-factor.
However, Lewis‘s past struggles with rapidly fading stamina present a possible weakness for de Lima to exploit. The numbers show Lewis averaging just over 7 minutes per fight during his UFC tenure, absorbing significant strikes in bunches as he slows. If de Lima can stretch this fight into the championship rounds, his superior cardio could swing the tide.
That said, Lewis has endured his share of punishment to battle back from dire scenarios. Memorable rallies to finish Alexander Volkov and Travis Browne underscore Lewis‘s grit and power to change the fight‘scomplexion with one punch. Meanwhile, de Lima has suffered critical lapses after hurting opponents, letting them off the hook. He can‘t afford defensive negligence against the division‘s most lethal finisher.
As the stakes rise in this potential 15/25-minute firefight, mental composure will be tested. The fighter better equipped to control those physiological and psychological stresses is likely to prevail. Based on experience, Lewis appears better primed to handle these chaotic situations.
Keys to Victory
Through this comparison of fighting styles and key metrics, a blueprint emerges for how Lewis and de Lima can each exploit the other‘s weaknesses:
Derrick Lewis
- Apply pressure but avoid brawling range
- Counter strike and allow de Lima to lead
- Implement offensive wrestling late when de Lima fatigues
- Remain composed if damaged; never lose patience
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Establish kicking range early, punish legs/body
- Combination punch when Lewis is planted
- Sprawl and scramble effectively to avoid ground control
- Stay defensively responsible inside pocket
These tactics spotlight the optimal strategies. But given the many variables at play, one perfectly timed punch could make all pre-fight planning moot.
The Verdict
Lewis and de Lima share enough common traits that predicting how their styles mesh requires reading between the statistical lines. Heart, grit, conditioning, strategy and mental strength must all be weighed equally with skill set.
As Lewis‘s esteemed coach Bob Perez said, "It‘s a dangerous fight that comes down to who can implement their game plan better."
Based on experience and intangibles in brawls with extreme adversity, Lewis possesses an edge. He‘s also shown steady improvement controlling range and exercising fight IQ as of late. Equally important, "The Black Beast" need only touch de Lima‘s chin once to end matters violently. Unless battered early, Lewis will patiently wait to deliver a knockout blow, likely between rounds 2 and 4.
Prediction: Derrick Lewis by TKO