The UFC‘s lightweight division has delivered some all-time wars over the years, but the upcoming main event at UFC 291 pits two of the most violent fighters in MMA against each other in what is sure to be an action-packed bout.
I‘ve been lucky enough to watch both Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green compete live on multiple occasions. Back at UFC 238, I witnessed firsthand Ferguson‘s uncanny ability to pull off a miracle comeback after getting dominated for 2+ rounds. Meanwhile, Green nearly ripped my throat out screaming when he shocked the world finishing jiu-jitsu ace Lando Vannata at UFC 216. So when the UFC booked this fight slated for five rounds of chaos, you know I circled it instantly on my calendar.
Let‘s break down the keys to victory for both combatants, analyze the stylistic matchup, provide a round-by-round prediction, and share why fans should be pumped for the UFC 291 headliner.
Tale of the Tape
Before previewing the action, let‘s compare some historical statistics across both fighters‘ UFC careers to better understand what each man brings to the table.
| Metric | Tony Ferguson | Bobby Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Record | 26-7 | 29-12 |
| Finish Rate | 81% | 48% |
| KO/TKO Rate | 26% | 24% |
| Submission Rate | 56% | 24% |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.59 | 3.63 |
| Strike Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 4.06 | 3.47 |
| Takedown Average | 1.96 | 0.21 |
| Takedown Defense | 56% | 80% |
| Submission Attempts | 2.8 | 0.1 |
Digging deeper, we can identify some key statistical differences that demonstrate Ferguson‘s well-rounded skill set compared to Green‘s defensive wrestling and precise counter striking approach.
While less accurate overall, Ferguson attempts way more strikes and thrives attacking relentlessly from wild angles. Meanwhile, Green efficiently maximizes power on his crisp 1-2 combinations. In grappling metrics, Ferguson showcases his Division 2 wrestling talent racking up frequent takedowns to complement an extremely aggressive submission game hunting chokes and traps from anywhere.
On the flip side, Green eludes over 4 out of 5 takedowns attempted with crafty footwork and balance, preferring to utilize a defensive grappling posture focused on quickly returning fights to a striking affair where he holds an edge.
These statistical patterns underpin the stylistic differences fans can expect once the cage door closes at UFC 291. Now let‘s investigate what adjustments each fighter must make to execute their optimal gameplan.
Ferguson‘s Keys to Victory
For Tony Ferguson, this fight comes down to using constant pressure through creative combination striking to disguise takedowns before unleashing his deadly arsenal of chokes once on the mat.
Standing, Ferguson must stay busy pumping his jab while mixing in spinning attacks and wild punches from various angles to find openings in Green‘s defense. At range, sharp kicks battering the legs and body will also help disrupt Green‘s rhythm while backing him into the cage for easier takedown entries.
Once in clinch fighting territory, Ferguson relies on sneaky trips and throws to change levels for reactive takedowns, an area he has thrived historically. Fighters like Michael Johnson and Justin Gaethje have seen their striking nuetralized quickly wrestling with Ferguson along the fence lines. The same exact strategy presents Ferguson his best opportunity to steer this fight where Green is most vulnerable – scrambling in close quarters grappling situations.
Finally, Ferguson must stay patient positioning for submissions if he successfully grounds the fight. Green‘s submission defense and defensive grappling shine brightest earlier in fights before cardio fades. By round three, the probability he makes a mistake defending hands while attempting to stand spikes drastically. Ferguson can exploit any small misstep to step over into mount or expose his back.
Once there, Ferguson owns the killer instinct to finish or punish Green for minutes hunting for an opening. Across a 25 minute fight, that spells danger regardless of early success stuffing takedowns. Do not be surprised if Ferguson secures a D‘arce or triangle choke off a scramble late, as no fighter stays out of danger for long once he slaps on a neck tie.
Green‘s Keys to Victory
For Bobby Green to score the monumental upset, he must bank early rounds staying upright and use his stellar conditioning to continue outstriking Ferguson late.
Green should not deviate from his high guard style, working behind an active jab and staying light on his feet. Sideways movement on the outside keeps distance, and popping Ferguson with counter check right hands during exchanges will help deter constant forward pressure. Attacking Ferguson‘s body and legs also slows opponents over time by limiting his mobility exploding for takedowns.
However, simply being defensive won‘t be enough with the judges. Green must focus on volume, mixing up combinations to the head and body while staying busy. Resetting exchanges by circling off the cage limits grappling opportunities for Ferguson and playing matador wears down opponents psychologically when takedowns fail.
Later, he can open up more confidently with power combinations. Staying off the fence keeps Green in his comfort zone picking Ferguson apart entering space rather than bracing for grappling strength in the clinch. As long as Green avoids spending prolonged periods defending takedowns or conceding dominant positions on the ground, out-landing Ferguson standing should seal a decision verdict by fight‘s end.
Statistical Striking Comparison
Since the winner of this matchup likely gets their hand raised by edging competition on the feet most of the fight, let‘s do a deep dive into the career striking numbers for both lightweight warriors.
| Striking Metric | Tony Ferguson | Bobby Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.59 | 3.63 |
| Significant Strike Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
| Total Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.34 | 5.75 |
| Total Strikes Thrown Per Minute | 17.93 | 11.72 |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 4.06 | 3.47 |
| Strikes Defended | 62% | 70% |
Digging deeper into striking differentials and defense, a few key takeaways provide additional context:
- Tony sits +0.53 in striking differential (4.59 landed vs 4.06 absorbed)
- Bobby sits +0.16 striking differential (3.63 landed vs 3.47 absorbed)
- Bobby holds nearly a 30% edge defending significant strikes (70% vs 62%)
Bobby Green clearly holds defensive advantages avoiding damage on the feet, but he allows Ferguson to outland him by nearly a strike per minute. It speaks to the offensive potency Ferguson brings being more active, but Green‘s economy of movement helps prevent him taking shots in return.
These statistical striking dichotomies showcase why the fight should deliver guaranteed entertainment. Ferguson will constantly walk forward engaging looking to overwhelm Green, while Bobby relies on superior technique picking shots wisely in retreat.
The Secret Behind Ferguson‘s Striking Chaos
Much of Tony Ferguson‘s standup success stems not merely from accuracy or knockout power but his ability to throw opponents off rhythm attacking at strange angles. By switching stances frequently between orthodox and southpaw mid combination, Ferguson impairs an opponent‘s ability gauge distance properly to return fire.
When combined with relentless swarming pressure throwing everything from snap kicks to spinning elbows in high volume, "El Cucuy" overwhelms the senses and reaction time of those standing across from him.
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This presents a nightmare scenario for Bobby Green if he cannot manage distance well or gets backed into the fence. Green prefers operating at long range in open space, so Ferguson must impose his will quickly closing distance to negate that comfort zone advantage.
El Cucuy‘s best performances often involve perfectly blending his crazy variety of strikes into takedown layers seamlessly. Green has all the tools to win exchanges trading blow for blow, but absorbing Ferguson‘s pace and constant stance switches for 25 minutes presents an exhausting psychological challenge to overcome.
Ferguson‘s Unbreakable Spirit & Resolve
No fighter exemplifies embracing the grind quite like Tony Ferguson, including going to extremes even outside competition to push cardio and mental toughness boundaries. From bringing axes into training sessions, completing triathlons for fun, or bizarre weight cutting tactics Ferguson tailors individually, El Cucuy exhibits the heart and desire of a true martial artist.
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His ability to absorb barrages of strikes and punish from bottom grappling positions break more fragile-minded opponents psychologically. Every moment trapped defending one of Ferguson‘s submissions or brutal ground strikes feels like a miniature hell.
As a result, the chances Green finishes or dominates Ferguson start to diminish as the fight wears longer despite technical advantages. The mental strain needed for 25 minutes preventing El Cucuy from enactment his gameplan requires near perfection, an impossible standard against someone so unpredictable and durable.
Green‘s Chin, Cardio & Precision
Despite praise for Tony Ferguson‘s attrition tactics and refusal to quit, Bobby Green enters the cage equally well-equipped to fight at a relentless pace and absorb damage exceeding normal human limits. Green‘s world-class conditioning, proven over five rounds before, remains an x-factor if Ferguson cannot ground him consistently.
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Green also holds underrated defensive craft having only been finished twice (both over a decade ago) across 40 career outings. That proven ability recovering quickly and never losing composure despite taking clean shots presents more questions whether Ferguson outpaces and finishes him. Green may hit the floor multiple times, but won‘t stay there long or make fight-altering errors mentally.
Finally, while Ferguson throws far faster combination strings, Bobby Green connects much more efficiently. Across nearly 7 significant strikes landed per minute, Green finds a home for power counters twice as accurately as Ferguson‘s whirling dervish attack (49% vs. 41%). Over thousands of repetitions, that 8% differential compounded repeatedly across 25 minutes adds up enormously on scorecards.
If Green can avoid absorbing the biggest single head-ringing shots inside the pocket, Ferguson will continually pump blood leaking from several smaller facial lacerations. And in the latter rounds, those glancing counters accumulate and change complexion of fights far more than even Ferguson‘s furious flurries. Precision beats power more often than not over 5 rounds.
Round-By-Round Breakdown & Prediction
After evaluating styles and key statistics in depth, let‘s outline exactly how I envision this potential 2021 Fight of the Year unfolding once the bell rings Saturday night. Welcome to prediction time – here‘s your round-by-round preview!
Round 1
The opening frame starts tactically, as Green comes out laterally shuffling with hands high guarding his chin. Ferguson takes center octagon and begins pressuring forward right away, pumping his jab and firing oblique kicks. After a minute exchanging from distance, Ferguson starts chaining punch combos together finding openings to step into range. But Green lands clean counters tagging Ferguson walking inside, snapping El Cucuy‘s head back repeatedly. Bobby mixes knees to the body effectively to keep Ferguson second guessing constantly, and clips him again badly with a perfect check hook before the bell sounds.
10-9 Green
Round 2
Already showing some swelling on his right cheek in between rounds, Ferguson storms forward chasing Green rapidly throwing wild hooks. He manages to back Green towards the cage, and lands a hard elbow slicing Green over his left eye region. Smelling blood, Tony tries desperately slamming Green to the mat unsuccessfully. After defending a deep single leg takedown, Green escapes away fighting back towards center cage and starts targeting Ferguson‘s lead leg with chopping inside kicks. El Cucuy switches stance erratically throwing spinning strikes to keep Green guessing but eats more straight punches countering. By round‘s end, Green has busted up Ferguson‘s nose dripping blood too heading to their corners.
10-9 Green
Round 3
In championship rounds, Ferguson turns aggression up further shooting immediately for reactive takedowns. He successfully drags Green into his open guard after landing an uppercut in close, and starts threatening submissions from bottom. After escaping danger, Green makes the mistake trying to stand and gets his back taken quickly. Ferguson unleashes nasty ground and pound, opening another cut by Green‘s eye before he manages to spin into guard. Both fighters return to standing exchanges, each bloodied and swollen. Ferguson gets dropped by an overhand right late, but survives firing back toe to toe to make it to round four.
10-9 Ferguson
Round 4
Heading into deep waters exhausted and battered, Ferguson digs deep and secures an early slamming takedown straight into mount. He postures up unleashing herky jerky strikes, mixing elbows and punches together opening up a huge cut on Green‘s forehead. Sensing a finish, El Cucuy starts accelerating pace attempting multiple chokes getting Green‘s back briefly. But each time Green manages to peel the submission grip, return to guard and stand back up. The referee brings in cageside physicians to check Green‘s vision with blood pouring down, but allows the fight to continue. Green survives by retreating the rest of the round, giving Ferguson his second consecutive 10-9 round.
10-9 Ferguson
Round 5
For a final round, Green storms out urgently knowing he must finish to win. Bobby turns hunter backing Ferguson towards the cage instead, and unloads a barrage of power combinations. But Ferguson shows off an iron chin eating every shot and fires back wildly, as both men trade recklessly swinging for the fences. With 90 seconds left, a perfectly timed double leg takedown from Ferguson grounds the action again. He quickly advances into mount and then takes Green‘s back with both hooks during scrambles. Green frantically tries rolling out of danger unsuccessfully, and succumbs finally to a tight rear naked choke after multiple earlier submission attempts.
Ferguson by RNC Submission
Final Thoughts & Prediction Recap
After digging into the details around styles, skills, statistics, and intangibles my final prediction remains…
Tony Ferguson defeats Bobby Green by Round 5 Submission
I believe Bobby Green has all the tools to frustrate Ferguson by winning exchanges early and stuffing takedowns with his stellar defensive grappling. However, across a 25-minute all-out war Ferguson‘s attrition will wear Green down just enough physically to secure a submission late.
El Cucuy‘s relentless pace, granite chin holding up to Green‘s counters, and world-class scrambling to snatch necks in transitions leads me to believe his grappling proves the difference escaping with a dramatic finish down the stretch. Ferguson has built a legacy rallying from dire scenarios, which I expect plays out again grinding a resilient Green into dust Sunday night.
Regardless of outcomes though, the UFC 291 headliner guarantees one thing for fans – VIOLENCE with a capital V. Both Ferguson and Green compete with a mutual love for chaotic striking battles, so fasten your seatbelts for a potential rollercoaster Ferris wheel certain to deliver.