Tobias Harris‘ tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers has been a disappointment since they acquired him at the 2019 trade deadline hoping he would be their missing piece as a third star. Nearly three years later, with James Harden now in tow but many of the same issues persisting, the Sixers have some tough decisions upcoming on Harris‘ future as the February 9th trade deadline looms.
Harris‘ name is circulating in a flurry of trade rumors from reputable NBA insiders, signaling the Sixers are seriously weighing moving the high-priced forward. Let‘s evaluate the Harris trade chatter in-depth, analyzing what‘s gone wrong, interested suitors, potential packages, and how parting ways would impact the Sixers.
Regression Since Joining Sixers Goes Beyond This Season
Harris‘ lackluster play in 2022-23 (16.6 PPG on 32.6% 3PT shooting) makes him an obvious trade candidate, but his decline extends further back across his nearly three seasons in Philadelphia:
| Season | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3PT% |
| ------------- |:-------------:|-------------:|-------------:|-------------:|-------------:|
| 2021-22 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 3.5 | .466 | .366 |
| 2020-21 | 19.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | .518 | .398 |
| 2019-20 (Phi) | 19.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | .469 | .361 | As you can see, Harris‘ scoring production, shooting percentages, and efficiency have mostly trended downward since that 2019 trade. After averaging over 20 PPG in 2018-19 with the Clippers, he hasn‘t eclipsed 19.5 PPG with the Sixers.
Advanced metrics like Box Plus/Minus and Win Shares also showcase Harris declining from his final season as a Clipper:
| Season | BPM | WS | PER |
| ------------- |:-------------:|-------------:|-------------:|
| 2021-22 | -0.9 | 4.4 | 14.6 |
| 2020-21 | 1.7 | 7.2 | 17.5 |
| 2019-20 (Phi) | 0.1 | 4.4 | 15.5 |
| 2018-19 (LAC) | 2.1 | 7.9 | 18.5 |His struggles meshing alongside Embiid and Simmons now feel similar next to Harden this season. Just watch some recent offensive possessions, and you‘ll see awkward moments like this:
The fit has been questionable from the start, leading to his ineffectiveness compared to production as a primary option in Los Angeles.
Trade Interest Reflects Leaguewide Belief in Harris‘ Value
Given his descending performance and massive contract, you‘d expect minimal trade buzz surrounding Tobias Harris. However, reports suggest nearly a third of teams have inquired about Harris‘ availability.
What explains this widespread interest despite his struggles? Harris remains a valuable commodity in a narrowed, specialized role. Squads focused on the present rather than financial books see potential to extract quality production out of Harris.
Contenders like the Suns and Grizzlies envision him thriving as a tertiary scoring option. They can also afford to take on salary without luxury tax concerns in pursuit of a title.
Rebuilders like the Magic hope Harris provides fan energy as a veteran name who can contribute amidst their young core‘s growth.
Are teams viewing Harris through rose-colored glasses? Perhaps to an extent – but between the box score and eye test, the versatile forward clearly still brings tangible qualities that warrant trade consideration from various fronts.
| Team | Reported Interest | Potential Trade Package |
| ------------- |:-------------:|-------------:|
| Phoenix Suns | ✅ | Jae Crowder + Cam Johnson + 1st Rd Pick |
| Memphis Grizzlies | ✅ | Danny Green + Dillon Brooks + 1st Rd Pick |
| Orlando Magic | ✅ | Gary Harris + Terrence Ross + 1st Rd Pick |How Realistic Packages Shape Sixers‘ Offseason Flexibility
If the win-now Sixers pull the trigger on a Harris deal, what could they realistically expect in return? His contract massively diminishes his trade value, so packages likely center around salary relief + draft capital rather than a high-impact talent.
Let‘s examine a couple of hypothetical proposals in more detail:
Magic Receive: Tobias Harris
Sixers Receive: Gary Harris, Terrence Ross, 2024 1st Round Pick Top-10 Protected
This package provides two quality wings on team-friendly deals. Both Harris and Ross offer three-point shooting and secondary scoring that helps replace Harris‘ production. The lottery-protected 1st provides upside six years down the road.
Suns Receive: Tobias Harris
Sixers Receive: Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, 2023 1st Round Pick Top-12 Protected
While not salary relief, Crowder and Johnson better fit Philadelphia‘s win-now timeline as playoff-tested veterans. The 1st should convey this June and allows the Sixers to add more affordable talent.
Here‘s a look at how the team‘s payroll shape changes in these two scenarios:
[charts showing Sixers‘ payroll/tax outlook with and without Harris‘ contract]As you can see, moving Harris creates significant financial flexibility. Ownership concerns over spiraling tax bills makes a trade almost mandatory.
Ripple Effects of a Potential Tobias Harris Trade
More than the underwhelming return packages, the most valuable aspect of a Harris trade would be removing his $37.6 and $39.3 million cap hits over the following two seasons.
Let‘s examine some of the positive ripple effects such seismic financial relief could catalyze:
1. Hard Cap Relief To Add Missing Piece
Trading Harris likely gets the Sixers under the hard cap, enabling them to use the full Mid-Level Exception this summer on a missing piece.
2. Financial Wiggle Room To Retain Harden
Relief from Harris‘ cap hits makes maxing out Harden and even extending Maxey down the road much more feasible.
3. Tax Relief To Satisfy Ownership
Ownership‘s willingness to continuously dip deep into the luxury tax feels questionable. Removing Harris provides flexibility to add talent that better fits the JH/JE duo while avoiding astronomical tax penalties.
4. Addition By Subtraction Fit-Wise
While the on-court production leaves a void, removing Harris‘ ill-fitting game could raise the team‘s ceiling. The enhanced flexibility to build around Embiid and Harden following a trade feels pivotal.
Evaluating Post-Deadline Roster Construction Possibilities
If the Sixers deal Harris before February 9th, how might the rotation reshape with returning pieces and buyout market additions? Here‘s one scenario:
Post-Deadline Rotation
PG: James Harden, De‘Anthony Melton
SG: Matisse Thybulle, Jae Crowder
SF: P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr.
PF: Cameron Johnson, Georges Niang
C: Joel Embiid, Montrezl Harrell
Notes:
- Crowder and Johnson help preserve floor spacing
- Melton and Thybulle split time defending lead guards
- Harrell signed after Suns buyout as Embiid‘s backup
That‘s just one of many directions the Sixers could take their new-look rotation. The flexibility andfinancial means to add talent after a Harris trade feels invaluable.
Precedent Exists for High-Profile Players to Thrive After Midseason Trades
Some in Philly may feel apprehensive about disrupting team chemistry halfway through the season. But we‘ve seen examples in recent years of stars traded in-season playing pivotal roles in their new locales:
D‘Angelo Russell after Brooklyn traded him to Golden State in 2019: 21.7 PPG, 6.2 APG in 33 games
Nikola Vucevic after Orlando traded him to Chicago in 2021: 21.5 PPG, 11.7 RPG in 26 games
Harris landing in a more narrowly-suited offensive role could prompt a similarly resurgent post-trade close to 2022-23. He has that bounceback talent if put in the right position to thrive.
The Bottom Line on Tobias Harris‘ Future in Philadelphia
Evaluating all factors surrounding Tobias Harris‘ present and future in Philadelphia, a trade feels inevitable. His on-court limitations meshing alongside Embiid and Harden paired with his contract crippling future roster construction flexibility necessitates a change.
Can the Sixers recoup full value for an ill-fitting "star" on an albatross deal? Of course not. But through potential packages like those outlined above, they can escape Harris‘ cap hit albatross and retain assets to build out a true contender.
Barring an improbable turnaround upon his return from injury, expect Tobias Harris to sport a new uniform by February 10th. For both him and the Sixers, splitting up feels like the only path forward toward finally achieving their championship aspirations after this failed three-year experiment.