As a passionate fan who has eagerly awaited a new Song of Ice and Fire novel for over a decade, I completely empathize with the agonizing frustration many of us feel over the delays in the release of The Winds of Winter. This was supposed to be the triumphant next chapter following the cataclysmic events of A Dance with Dragons! Instead, we‘ve had to endure year after year of wishing and hoping to finally discover the fates of our beloved characters – Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen, Tyrion Lannister and so many more.
Believe me, I‘ve spent countless hours analyzing every blog post and interview with George R.R. Martin, desperately scouring for clues that indicate tangible writing progress is happening. And time and again, my optimism sinks when faced with more revelations about how complex and multifaceted the next book has become.
The Long Night of Writing Ahead
To understand the delays, it‘s critical to comprehend just how mammoth of an undertaking The Winds of Winter has transformed into over a decade-plus in the making. Martin himself has stated it could be the longest book in the series yet, estimating a length exceeding 1,500 manuscript pages prior to editing.
For comparison, that would make The Winds of Winter a full 25% larger than A Storm of Swords at 1,177 pages – already considered one of epic fantasy‘s most dense and intricate novels. Martin has also indicated the book will likely be split into two volumes in certain international publications due to printing restrictions on volume length.
In a 2020 blog post, Martin affirmed he still had "hundreds of more pages to write" involving characters spread across Westeros, Essos and Sothoryros. He described needing to grapple with and converge "a lot of balls still in the air".
Just a brief survey of where the most pivotal characters stand underscores how much still hangs in the balance:
- Jon Snow – Potentially revived after Julius Caesar-style betrayal by the Night‘s Watch
- Daenerys – Caught in the turmoil of Meereen, still learning to rule as Queen
- Tyrion – Enroute to meet Daenerys with the Second Sons company
- Bran – Heading north beyond the Wall with mysterious intentions
- Cersei – Grasping to retain power amidst prophecy of being cast down
- Arya – Blind and reduced to begging under tutelage of the Faceless Men
- Theon Greyjoy – Escaped from torture but broken in body and spirit
- Victarion Greyjoy – Enroute to woo Daenerys with the Iron Fleet
And those are just the POV characters! Into the mix you still have vast looming threats like the Others preparing their conquest south of the Wall, as well as scores of secondary characters caught up in intricate schemes that could shift the fates of kings and queens.
Untangling the Meereenese Knot
Perhaps no plot line better encapsulates the complex narrative knots Martin faces than the ongoing battle for power in Slaver Bay and Meereen. This dense cluster of scheming factions and opposing armies (collectively dubbed the "Meereenese Knot") notoriously stalled Martin‘s writing progress way back during the initial composition of A Dance with Dragons.
And now in The Winds of Winter, Daenerys‘s struggles with ruling Meereen escalate severely. Martin plans massive climactic battles pitting the forces of Daenerys and her dragons against a confederacy of Yunkish slave masters and sellswords (the Second Sons, Windblown, Company of the Cat, Long Lances), joined by the treacherous Volanteene fleet Redwyne-style versus Victarion‘s Iron Fleet.
How will it all play out? Who will come out ahead? How will Daenerys‘s decisions shape her path ahead to potentially sailing west for conquest of Westeros? These are dense chapters involving chains upon chains of clever machinations and blood-soaked chaos.
Martin also plans for Tyrion to get further embroiled in the thick of the Meereenese drama upon arriving to meet and presumably serve Daenerys. And let‘s not forget other embedded POV characters like Victarion Greyjoy, Theon‘s murderous uncle, who‘s sailing towards Meereen offering marriage and ships in exchange for Dragonbinder – a cursed Valyrian horn that supposedly controls dragons.
So in essence, much of The Winds of Winter revolves around Daenerys deciding how to play the great game against calculating rivals like the perfumed seneschal Reznak mo Reznak, pitiless slave masters Kraznys and Yezzan, menacing admiral Victarion, seductive sellsword captain Brown Ben Plumm and treacherous second-in-command Skahaz "The Shavepate".
Not exactly an easy balancing act for Martin. But if the ‘Meereenese Knot‘ caused multi-year delays before, untangling the even more tangled continuation clearly poses a nightmare scenario!
The Gardener‘s Perennial Struggle
As a dedicated fan well-versed in Martin‘s creative process, I know the lengths he goes towards perfecting intricately constructed chapters one gardener-tended metaphorical vine at a time. He has described needing to fully inhabit the mindset of each POV character in turn in order to organically grow the next sequence events that feel true to their perspective.
This meticulous approach is antithetical to suddenly forcing contrived outcomes or letting continuity errors slip through cracks. The thing is, Martin is a ponderous, perfectionist writer by nature prone towards bouts of slower progress. Even during the initial writing phase for the very first Ice and Fire novel A Game of Thrones in the early 1990s, Martin suffered through a two year period in which he felt he had lost control of the book.
As shared in the 2022 memoir Tuf Voyaging, he endured grave doubts about the story direction, intense anxiety over writing himself into corners, and paralyzing stress from the pressure to deliver new material on deadlines. It took a full six years for him to complete A Game of Thrones!
Now with The Winds of Winter, that exact same struggle seems to replay all over again, except exponentially compounded by the Stockholm syndrome of having fallen in love with his exponentially growing cast of characters according to Martin. Judging from the rate of adding more POVs and proliferating plot vines that intertwine entire worlds, this next book represents the ultimate manifestation of the notorious gardener‘s bane!
Fan Theories Abound on the Delays
In the absence of tangible updates from the icy silences of Martin‘s writing bunker, A Song of Ice and Fire fans have spun up all manner of theories to explain the constant delays. These range from plausible to mildly absurd:
- He‘s secretly finished multiple books already but strings fans along to stir anticipation
- He keeps getting distracted side-questing on spinoff histories like The World of Ice and Fire
- He put the book on pause until the Game of Thrones show finished airing
- He won‘t release new books that could overtake and spoil the now stalled HBO prequels
- He wrote himself into dead ends and needs to backtrack entire plotlines
- He fell too in love with fame and new passion projects to focus seriously on writing
- He HAS finished but ruthless editors keep demanding heavy rewrites
- He realizes the true ending planned will enrage fans so he indefinitely stalls
- He constantly restarts from scratch when real world events inspire changes
- He has literally forgotten central plot points and character names
While some theories trend towards accusatory, I believe most fans recognize Martin merits support and encouragement free from undue impatience or demands. We as followers of this saga owe it to him and ourselves to exemplify comprehension and positivity.
Still, after so many endless cycles of radio silence regarding real progress on The Winds of Winter, tempers within the fandom teeter on a knife‘s edge.
Impatient Voices Grow Louder in the Fandom
If message boards and Reddit forums are any indicator, enthusiasm among A Song of Ice and Fire devotees has been tested to the limits. The winds whipped up by fan discontent grow stronger, especially after that disastrous final season of Game of Thrones soured people on the televised adaptation.
Visit sites like /r/ASOIAF or Winterfell.org and you‘ll witness formerly rational fans succumbing to dismay and outrage over George R.R Martin‘s other projects and hobbies distracting focus from book writing.
Many vent bitter frustration towards Martin attending sci-fi conventions, collaborating on HBO spinoff shows, starting new Devils and Demons TV universe literature, playing rail video games or attending football games.
"It‘s clear George lost the spark and passion for this story and keeps exploiting reader goodwill," wrote one agitated Redditor. "I wish he‘d just be honest that the book series will never get finished so we can find closure!"
Such remarks underscore the emotional connection supporters feel towards the ASOIAF universe and characters. And when invested fans sense story or character abandonment by creators, some judiciously express reasoned criticism while others spiral into tirades and contempt.
I myself recall the acute disappointment when upon learning the sixth novel wouldn‘t hit Martin‘s tentative 2018 release target for the 30th Ice and Fire anniversary he had teased. That revelation completely deflated my optimism and forced surrender to an indefinite timeline.
And yet like so many of my fellow fans often tracking this Gordian Knot of writing complexities, we cannot fully extricate our hearts from the worlds born of Martin‘s incredible vision. So we weather the winds and words that whip or soothe our collective yearning.
The Long Wait in Context
Beyond just George R.R Martin‘s A Song of Ice and Fire, many all-time classic epic fantasy series become defined by the vast gulfs of time between entries. Fans endure long waits with varying degrees of patience.
A productive comparison is with fellow fantasy titan Robert Jordan‘s Wheel of Time opus. That sprawling saga spanning 14 gargantuan novels also grew infamous for lengthy delays as Jordan‘s original ambitions vastly outscaled his writing pace.
Publish dates for later entries often spanned anywhere from 2-6 years apart – driving fans mad with waiting! And after Jordan‘s untimely passing, the final three books required another author, Brandon Sanderson, to race towards tying off Jordan‘s dangling plot threads.
Another pioneer of the genre, Stephen R. Donaldson, started off hot with rapid two year intervals separating his original Thomas Covenant books before pacing slowed drastically. It took 17 years for him to complete the final Chronicles series climax!
And let‘s not overlook J.R.R Tolkien himself. The godfather of fantasy‘s Lord of the Rings sequel, The Silmarillion, languished in developmental hell for decades until finally compiled and published in 1977 – over 40 years after Hobbit‘s debut!
So in the halls of high fantasy, Martin‘s 10+ year (and counting) gap may feel interminable, yet looms perhaps not as egregious in fuller context. Of course I‘m still on tenterhooks counting the seconds until tangible word drops that The Winds of Winter nears competition!
But if embracing the long view, I‘ve become more zen about awaiting these Winter winds. Too often nowadays fiction gets rushed half-baked to appease corporate greed. I‘d rather wait and reward myself with the fully realized, pristinely polished saga so richly deserved!
Sure the holding pattern stretches on indefinitely. But the upside? Just imagine the catharsis when on that fateful day our watch is finally ended. At long last shall the sweet spring breeze against our cheeks herald a dream of winters done.