Imagine your next new car could drive itself on highways or maneuver into tight parking spots with little input needed from you. As you cruise along hands-free, the vehicle‘s cameras, sensors and computers remain ever vigilant, examining the road faster than human reaction times while you sit back. Periodically suggestions pop up requesting you resume steering or approve a lane change to keep you involved, but overall it handles most of the tedium.
This vision of automated driving comes startlingly close to reality in Tesla vehicles equipped with the latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta software. Granted, true autonomous capability remains a work in progress. You can‘t yet take a nap as your Tesla chauffeurs you to your destination. However, each new over-the-air update brings enhancements, allowing these digitally augmented cars to shoulder an increasing portion of driving tasks with supervision.
The Origins of Tesla‘s Automated Driving Ambitions
Tesla‘s automated driving journey began in late 2015 when it launched the first generation of Autopilot driver assistance capabilities. That initial version offered features like adaptive cruise control, automated emergency braking, lane keeping assistance and the ability to automatically change lanes when activated using the turn signal.
Over subsequent years, improved sensor hardware and major software updates added more functionality like easy highway driving, self-parking and ultimately summoning your car from a parking space using your phone. Possessing the compute horsepower and extensive real-world fleet data to train cutting-edge neural networks set the stage for Tesla‘s next leap via its custom Full Self-Driving computer.
Major Tesla Autopilot Upgrade Milestones:
| Version | Date | Capabilities Added |
|---|---|---|
| Enhanced Autopilot Hardware 1 | Sep 2014 | Adaptive cruise, emergency braking |
| Autopilot Software v1 | Oct 2015 | Traffic-aware cruise, auto steer |
| Enhanced Autopilot Hardware 2 | Aug 2016 | 12 ultrasonic sensors, new computer |
| FSD Computer Hardware 3 | Mar 2019 | >144 trillion operations/second |
| Autosteer Stop Light/Sign | Mar 2020 | Recognizes lights/signs |
| FSD Beta Phase 1 | Oct 2020 | Complex turns, autopark |
| FSD Beta Phase 2 | Nov 2021 | City streets expansion |
Unlike companies focused solely on robo-taxis devoid of traditional controls, Tesla works within the framework of human-driven individually owned vehicles. Their approach centers on augmenting drivers through automation that reduces annoying tasks, not outright replacing the person behind the wheel.
Just How Many Vehicles Currently Test FSD‘s Capabilities?
As of August 2022, Tesla reports over 100,000 cars participate in the FSD beta program under their owners‘ supervision. Videos shared online spotlight these early access test vehicles smoothly handling left turns amidst rush hour traffic, indirect highway interchange maneuvers and crowded parking lots.
To put that fleet scale into perspective though, Tesla overall has sold nearly 3 million vehicles to date globally. So while impressive compared to highly controlled testing regimens relied upon by most competitors, the current FSD beta represents well under 5% of Teslas on the roads.
As wider release looms contingent on regulators approving future software updates, interest is unsurprisingly massive. Over 40,000 Canadian reservation holders alone await access. Though many self-described safety experts worry the greater distribution exposes more drivers to unsafe glitches, Tesla argues broad data gathering accelerates improvements.
Reviewing FSD Performance Through Examples
Based on early tester accounts, Tesla‘s FSD shines when doing highway driving or relieving parking headaches. Navigating freeway interchanges, handling stop-and-go traffic, or finding open spaces in packed lots proves broadly useful in early evaluations. However, most acknowledge still needing to pay close attention nearing exits or in adverse weather when periodic misjudgments arise.
Take unprotected left turns for example. FSD beta 10.69 gaining this long promised capability in August 2022 showcases impressive progress assessing gaps in oncoming traffic. Yet it only attempts turns under 50 mph for now, as higher relative velocities multiply the risk should errors occur. Videos document occasional awkwardly slow decisions forcing cars behind to wait as FSD‘s algorithms err conservatively. But the overall success navigating these tricky situations still evidences meaningful gains.
Or consider FSD‘s reaction upon encountering emergency vehicles. While normally fairly adept at safely slowing and yielding space, early versions still required drivers grab wheel control to steer around parked firetrucks. But now as of version 10.69.2,remaining hands on the wheel enables FSD itself to maneuver around obstacles using inputs like brake/accelerator pressure while you provide oversight.
Admittedly, skepticism persists on Tesla‘s eye-catching claims that FSD soon enables automatic driving from home to destination without human involvement. But priorities like smoothly handling right turns on red or traversing residential areas represent big progress evolving past solely highway domain reliance. Altogether over two years of increasing sophistication, FSD already alleviates considerable driving tedium even if truly autonomous capability remains on the horizon.
Reviewing Safety – The Elephant in the Room for FSD‘s Perception
Speaking of skepticism though, evaluating real world performance cannot ignore the elephant in the room regarding Full Self-Driving – safety. Both regulators and autonomous vehicle experts worry Tesla‘s untraditional beta testing approach risks substantial injuries or property damage from technological limitations.
What does the available data imply? Tesla‘s vehicle safety reports indicate about 1 accident recorded per 5 million miles driven when Autopilot is engaged. Their newest data including FSD-equipped models specifically shows a promising safety profile as well, with fewer airbag deployments compared to human-only driving.
However, the limited parameters reported frustrates independent confirmation, with regulators demanding more release on underlying detail. A few concerning incidents also highlight room for improvement handling edge cases. For example, a 2022 crash in Oregon involving FSD braking unexpectedly remains under federal investigation for potential software faults.
Altogether though, the broader industry‘s extremely cautious perspective merits equally thoughtful scrutiny. How many years of ultra-conservative development aimed strictly at low speed suburb use cases safely avoided public roads gets us to the promised land of full automation? Given America spends over 3 trillion miles annually driving, Tesla contends carefully expanding access paired with vigilant driver oversight strikes the right public benefit balance.
How Does Tesla‘s FSD Progress Keep Accelerating?
From a technical perspective, Tesla‘s torrid pace advancing FSD stems heavily from special hardware melding cameras, sensors and compute. The FSD computer at the system‘s core possesses 144 trillion neural network operations per second capacity. That order of magnitude greater ability to run advanced driver assist algorithms trained via extensive fleet data facilitates reliable scene parsing.
Combined with pounding testers for feedback on quirks encountered daily, Tesla leverages scale to leapfrog competitors focused narrowly on robo-taxi applications. Sustained FSD updates every few weeks also prevent stagnation that long development cycles relying on physical testing risk. Adroitly maximizing these synergies manifests in pragmatically evolving assistance pushing boundaries while still emphasizing safety.
FSD Cost Considerations – Buy or Subscribe?
For customers intriguing by FSD‘s promise, acquiring its capabilities comes through either outright purchase or subscription plans. Currently, a one time $15,000 payment adds lifetime full self-driving access matched to your Tesla account. By comparison, subscribing costs $199 monthly while pausing or resuming anytime flexibility.
Evaluating the better value depends significantly on individual plans. Consider two scenarios – buying a new Tesla today to keep for 5 years versus 10 years of ownership. Amortizing FSD‘s current purchase price over those horizons makes subscriptions financially preferable up until years 6 and 11 respectively, while permanently unlocking full functionality anytime thereafter.
| Ownership Period | FSD Purchase Cost | FSD Subscription Cost |
|---|---|---|
| 3 years | $15,000 | $7,164 |
| 5 years | $15,000 | $11,940 |
| 10 years | $15,000 | $23,880 |
| 15 years | $15,000 | $35,820 |
Of course, forecasting the future has risks too. Full autonomy could arrive rendering FSD subscriptions unnecessary before breakeven points are reached. Or regulators could constrain capabilities if oversight concerns persist. Still, Tesla appears committed to keep boosting FSD‘s existing driver assistance suite regardless, so sufficient convenience emerges from either plan depending on your needs and budget.
The Road Ahead – What‘s Next for Tesla‘s Automated Driving Efforts?
Given Tesla‘s role as a pioneer stretching boundaries with FSD beta testing, predictions for the technology‘s future split between starry-eyed optimism and derisive skepticism. Elon Musk himself recently touted upcoming versions enabling automatic driving to destinations countrywide. Meanwhile competitors suggest serious constraints to safe autonomy loom on a 5+ year horizon even for industry leaders.
Reality likely falls somewhere in between. Tesla‘s existing driver assistance features already seem poised to keep incrementally advancing. Recent builds make turns previously requiring complex human judgement nearly trivial in familiar areas. Perhaps city navigation broadly reliable enough to truly take drivers out of the loop remains further off than hoped. But smoother commutes and easier road trips come steadily nearer term.
Of course, the path forward promises to stay controversial given disagreements on Tesla’s rush toward greater automation. Yet both proponents and critics make reasoned cases that frame key societal decisions ahead on appropriate testing diligence. Regardless of one’s perspective though, FSD’s considerable progress reveals tangible transformations in how human drivers interact with their vehicles fast approaching. The hands on wheel oversight necessary today seems increasingly destined to one day become optional, then obsolete, even if full driverless freedom remains a destination farther down road.
