Pokemon Reprinting Crown Zenith: Will Prices Crash Further? An Investor’s Analysis
As a long time Pokémon collector, few announcements captured my attention like news of an imminent Crown Zenith reprint. This special set combines gorgeous gold foil cards of iconic Pokémon with an intentionally limited print run – catnip for investors and hardcore collectors like myself.
So when prices across singles, booster boxes, and promos rapidly tumbled in April following reprint confirmation, it raised some pressing questions. How deep could this decline go across various Crown Zenith items? Is now the time to buy the dip before the next wave hits shelves? What key indicators can guide savvy buyers and sellers in navigating volatile conditions?
As we’ll explore through in-depth analysis of market conditions and comparison to historical precedents, the answer remains complex with many variables at play.
Boom Then Bust for Early Crown Zenith Products
Crown Zenith’s initial launch created the perfect hype storm. Stunning gold card variants of heavy hitters like Pikachu VMAX coupled with minuscule supply compared to a typical mainline set.
It’s no wonder secondary market prices exploded to 3 or 4 times the $200 MSRP on booster boxes and blister packs. Even “premium collections” containing a coin and promo card nearly doubled typical retail approaching $100.
Below tables illustrate the rapid price spikes between Holiday 2022 pre-orders and Q1 2023:
Product | Pre Order Price | Q1 2023 Peak
Elite Trainer Box | $80 | $140
Booster Box | $230 | $450
Premium Collection | $60 | $90
Pikachu Promo | $30 | $180
This frenzy pushed the set to temporarily rival mainstay Chase sets like Hidden Fates and Shining Fates. But gravity took hold as macroeconomic instability increased caution. The previously red hot Pokémon collectible market cooled substantially from winter 2022 peaks. Crown Zenith prices began gradually descending across the board in February and March.
Then came the reprint announcement catalyst, spurring plummets of 40% or more on booster boxes and blister packs as speculators raced to sell ahead of the influx of new supply.
Product | Price Feb 2023 | Price July 2023 | % Decline
Elite Trainer Box | $115 | $70 | -39%
Booster Box | $350 | $200 | -43%
Premium Collection | $80 | $45 | -44%
Pikachu Promo | $140 | $90 | -36%
The staggering overnight drops in “premium collections” showcase the level of fear gripping the market. But how much lower can prices go during this panic selloff as reprints make their way to store shelves over the holidays? Analyzing trends across both cards and sealed sets illuminates what may come next.
Precipitous Price Declines on Crown Zenith Cards
While Chase cards like the Pikachu and Charizard gold full arts maintain triple digit price tags for now, most other Crown Zenith Singles paint a bearish picture. Non-gold versions of popular V and VMAX Pokémon that sell between $5 to $15 from main sets are struggling below $1 to $3. Even some gold ultra rares dropped from peaks above $60 down below $30.
The extreme volatility for middle tier and common cards signals continued trouble ahead. Here are current prices on a mix of previously in-demand Crown Zenith cards:
Pokemon Card | Non Gold Price Feb 2023 | Non Gold Price Now | % Drop | Gold Version Price Feb 2023 | Gold Price Now | % Drop
Crobat VMAX | $12 | $1 | -92% | $65 | $25 | -62%
Rayquaza VMAX | $8 | $1 | -88% | $55 | $35 | -36%
Sylveon V | $6 | $2 | -67% | $50 | $30 |-40%
Dedenne | $4 | $1 | -75% | $30 | $25 | -17%
This trend of sharp declines, especially on non-gold variants, will likely persist and potentially accelerate as post-reprint supply saturates the market over coming months.
Sealed Product Outlook – Further Declines Before Stability
Crown Zenith sealed booster boxes, Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs), and multi-pack blisters also face significant risk of still lower prices in my estimation before finding a bottom.
Using historical examples like the Evolutions and Ultra Prism reprints referenced earlier provides some guidance. In those cases, booster boxes ultimately sank 40 to 50% from pre-announcement peaks before starting a gradual climb back to parity and beyond in 12 to 18 months.
Applying the same trajectory would suggest Crown Zenith booster boxes approaching $175 to $200 in early 2024 as the next print wave works through retail channels before starting to recover and potentially returning to the $300 to $400 range further down the road.
Meanwhile, ETBs and blister packs tend to fall a bit further percentage wise but also rebound quicker as they typically get just one additional print wave. I’d expect ETBs possibly finding support near $60 over the next 4 to 6 months.
The premium collections present the wildest card. Their sharp undercutting of MSRP implies sellers are willing to take a loss just to exit positions. Additional restocks could push prices down into the $30 to $40 range at minimum.
Yet as the cheapest sealed option with a guaranteed promo hit, premium collections may also rebound fastest, possibly returning to the $80+ range leading into 2024 if Crown Zenith sustains cultural relevance. The tables below summarize my expectations:
Crown Zenith Product | Current Price | Projected Floor | Potential 1 Year Price
Booster Box | $200 | $175 | $350+
Elite Trainer Box | $70 | $60 | $100+
Premium Collection | $45 | $35 | $80+
Of course with a complex collector’s market, nothing is guaranteed. But factors like persisting nostalgia and recognition for the gold foil cards as special compared to standard sets bode well for Crown Zenith regaining some luster down the road.
Mitigating Risks Via Dollar Cost Averaging
For investors and collectors looking to capitalize on buying opportunities in volatile conditions, dollar cost averaging by making periodic purchases can help smooth out short term pricing swings.
This strategy involves buying a fixed dollar amount or quantity of an asset – whether a particular card, sealed booster boxes, or some mix – at regular intervals over an extended window. It may mean buying one Crown Zenith item per week or per month over the next year rather than investing a larger lump sum all at once.
Assuming the market ebbs and flows but trends positively long term, dollar cost averaging lets you minimize downside risk compared to buying at the wrong moment while benefiting from the lower prices at cycle troughs. When executed consistently, it can produce better overall returns than sporadic purchases. Consider applying this across a mix of sealed booster boxes, blister packs with guaranteed card hits like the Pikachu promos, and Chase gold cards.
Grading Adds Another Dimension
The prospect of grading also stands to stabilize or even elevate future values on Crown Zenith cards if populations remain low. Should PSA 10 prices hold at significant premiums to raw copies, that untapped upside for the right high grade cards presents opportunism amid turmoil.
While modern sets usually see extensive grading submissions immediately flood the market, some Crown Zenith cards flew under the radar. The latest PSA population reports show many gold ultra rares and secret rares exist in PSA 10 counts barely exceeding 100 copies or less so far.
Card | Total PSA 10s | Recent PSA 10 Sale
Charizard VMAX | 121 | $850
Umbreon VMAX | 92 | $600
Pikachu VMAX | 201 | $375
Mewtwo VSTAR | 18 | $250
For context, similar modern Chase card PSA 10s often reach thousands of copies shortly after release. If grading interest expands for Crown Zenith chase cards, considerable supply constraints exist relative to potential demand spikes.
The Next 6 to 12 Months Hold Keys to the Kingdom
In many ways, the direction for Crown Zenith over the next year likely sets its lasting market imprint. Will prices stabilize near their newly lowered levels once the next supply wave crests? Or will interest and prices rebound towards previous heights by late 2024?
Much hinges on just how much additional sealed product the upcoming reprinted supply can satisfy. If the Pokémon company floods shelves for months on end or issues additional reprints down the road in 2024 or 2025, then further declines or even permanent price suppression becomes possible.
However, should the next round of reprinted Crown Zenith see more measured rollout comparable to past instances like Evolutions or Ultra Prism, nostalgia and recognition of the set’s place in Pokémon history should take over. That unique combination of stunning gold foil cards, intentional initial scarcity, and ties to the brand’s legacy stand the test of time regardless of shorter term supply influxes.
The Verdict – Cautiously Bullish Long Term
While the road may remain volatile, my outlook on Crown Zenith remains decisively bullish over a 2 to 3 year timeframe. These gold foil cards hold inherent appeal unmatched by standard sets. Sealed booster supply will almost certainly return to out-of-print scarcity at some point.
And the current environment offers opportunistic buying chances unlikely to emerge again soon. The recent sharp decline across sealed boxes, blister packs, ETBs, and singles means patient collectors can secure top chase cards and sealed holdings at substantial discounts compared to 2022 peaks.
Dollar cost averaging offers a pathway to generate solid returns and smooth any continued turbulence over the reprint rollout timeframe. That methodical strategy backed by perspective of historical precedent makes me confident we’ll view today’s prices as an incredible buy-in opportunity before Crown Zenith reclaims its crown.