The upcoming release of the highly anticipated Pokemon Card 151 set has collectors ready to surge, but many also feel uncertain whether they’ll actually be able to get their hands on it. As an active member of the community, I’ve experienced first-hand the frustration around supply shortages and extreme post-release price spikes.
Pokemon now aims to curb these pain points with newly announced changes to production and distribution methods for limited edition sets – headlined by a pre-order model being tested for the first time.
As both a collector and investor, will these measures smooth out launches? Can they stabilize volatile pricing while improving availability? Let’s analyze the goals, potential impacts, and key tactics for navigating it all as a fan.
Surging Hype, Volatile Markets
Since Logan Paul and GaryVee sparked mainstream hype in 2020, the frenzied investor sentiment has overwhelmed supplies of exclusives. High profile sets like Champion’s Path and Shining Fates surged above 5-10X MSRP soon after release:
| Set | MSRP | Current Market Price | % Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champion‘s Path ETB | $49.99 | $230+$ | +360% |
| Shining Fates ETB | $39.99 | $150+ | +275% |
| Hidden Fates ETB | $39.99 | $400+ | +900% |
As early-in buyers, resellers fueled short-term ROI chasing. But genuine collectors faced priced out frustration. The extreme volatility also eroded trust in the long-viewed collectability.
Production Capacity Issues
Print sheets for Pokemon’s main TCG factory limited max output reaching only 185 sheets per hour in 2020 per industrial guides – capping supply. Attempts to shift patronage to additional facilities like Cartamundi struggled with quality control complaints.
Meanwhile, market research firms estimate only 10-20% of organic demand gets filled through official allocation channels before reseller buys gobble up inventory. Pokemon’s shift aims to better balance this equation.
Pre-Order Details & Collector Reception
Pokemon explained in their announcement:
“For limited goods that are only available for pre-order, we will start production after receiving orders and shipping out the production quantity”
This stark change ties supply directly to aggregate pre-orders. Applied first on the upcoming Clay Burst set in Japan, fans can lock-in booster boxes from May 11th to 16th before final production volumes get set.
Early reactions across collecting communities see fans laud potential price stabilization, but some investors grumble about profit loss. Overall the majority seem supportive. Noted influencer and competitive player Azul Garcia tweeted:
"This is a big win for real collectors tired of boxes only going to flippers! Should calm some of the insanity around new drops"
Goals & Collectibility Impact
Read between the lines, and Pokemon likely aims to:
- Match production to real demand
- Limit oversupply and severe price crashes
- Improve availability near MSRP
If achieved, this strategy could nurture long-term collectibility retention. Reduced volatility and speculative mania supports genre longevity – especially amongst younger generations.
But questions remain whether scalpers overwhelm preorder allocations without safeguards.
Past Launch Case Studies
Analyzing data from past sets shows just how scarce exclusives stayed relative to wider demand looking at sealed ETBs as proxies:
| Set | Total Print Run | % Sold to Public | Avg. Market Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champion‘s Path ETB | <500K | ~15% | $230 |
| Shining Fates ETB | <1M | ~25% | $150 |
| Hidden Fates ETB | <500K | ~10% | $400 |
| Evolving Skies ETB | 5M+ | ~60% | $60 |
This shows even sets like Hidden Fates with only 10% public allocation faced immediate 4X price premiums. New production models plan around estimated broader demand.
Concerns Around Reseller Exploits
One lingering worry remains that scalpers still overwhelm preorder allocations. Some groups already scheme ordering scripts planning bulk buys across households.
Pokemon could still limit purchases per address to curb this. But the system inherently progress by matching production to all demand whether collectors or business buyers.
Mitigating post-launch price volatility still supports wider goals. But more policy safeguards might come if issues emerge.
Preparing Your Preorder Strategy
For fans looking to secure Clay Burst and future pre-order set releases, some tactics can help your odds:
- Buy early in the window to guarantee orders in case of sellouts
- Monitor for updates on potential order caps restricting resellers
- Have payment queued so you check out faster once live
- Follow restock alerts in case more pre-order waves get announced
While buying later could allow more policy updates, popular sets may sell out fast. Prioritizing speed helps collectibility access.
What This Shift Means for Investors
For sealed product flippers and investors, limiting extreme short-term gains unlikely sits well. But stabilizing wider market health and keeping genuine collectors engaged still pays dividends long-term.
Reliable growth backed by appreciation of well-crafted sets designed for play and display brings healthier ROI. This move may force reliance on that longevity rather than volatile hype spikes.
Final Thoughts on Preorder Model & Pokemon 151 Set
While scarce promotional runs juiced up early investing, Pokemon seems ready to take control back with accurate supply and improved availability. As both a collector and trader, I support measures upholding card quality and emotional resonance.
The new production-to-order pre-order model can‘t fully eliminate distribution woes or aftermarket premiums on exclusives. But backed by data-driven volumes, it makes progress keeping pricing sane and shelves stocked for fans.
Stay tuned for finalized details on the Pokemon 151 set pre-orders! Exciting times ahead.