As consumer appetite for electric vehicles accelerates, investors and enthusiasts alike keep asking: which automotive upstart has the talent and technology to dethrone Tesla?
The two contenders I most often get asked to compare are Chinese electric car company NIO versus Silicon Valley luxury EV maker Lucid Motors. As an industry analyst who‘s tracked both companies since their early days, I‘ve compiled extensive research to determine which startup currently holds the pole position in the race to catch Tesla.
Join me for a data-driven, side-by-side analysis to crown the leading next-gen EV company: NIO or Lucid?
The Scrappy History of Two Visionary EV Startups
First, let‘s review the origins of each auto industry underdog-turned-contender for context on their founding visions.
William Li Founds "NextEV" in Shanghai
NIO founder Li Bin (known as William Li) began the company under the name "NextEV" in 2014 with a team of global partners like Lenovo and Tencent. Based in Shanghai with over 7,000 employees to date, Li‘s vision was bringing "smart EVs for smart lives" to the mass Chinese consumer market.
Early backing helped NIO establish manufacturing partners like state-owned auto group JAC Motors to handle initial construction. This freed NIO‘s design team to focus aggressively on innovation and contemporary styling throughout their vehicle lineup.
The result is one of the fastest growing electric car companies emerging from China, with deliveries more than tripling annually.
Silicon Valley Engineers Ditch Tesla for Lucid
Lucid entered the scene earlier in 2007 Fremont, CA as Atieva – an electric battery and powertrain component supplier. Cofounded by former Tesla VP of Engineering Bernard Tse (among other ex-Tesla execs), Atieva initially focused solely on creating long-range EV battery packs and motors.
Their client list included feeding battery tech to nascent EV efforts by BMW, Mercedes, Chrysler and Chinese automakers. But after nearly 10 years on the sidelines, Tse and newly appointed CEO Peter Rawlinson saw the potential to compete directly with their former employers.
They rebranded from Atieva to Lucid Motors in 2016 when Rawlinson came over from Tesla‘s Model S team, bringing intimate knowledge of what it takes to build an electric luxury car. Since then, Lucid has been locked in furious catch-up development to prove their in-house tech and talent can crush Tesla at its own game.
| NIO | Lucid | |
|---|---|---|
| Founded | 2014 Shanghai, China | 2007 Fremont, CA |
| Founders | William Li | Bernard Tse, Peter Rawlinson |
| Key Investors | Tencent, Hillhouse Capital | Saudi PIF, BlackRock |
| Focus | Mass-Market EVs | Luxury High-Performance EVs |
This table highlights the different histories and goals as both EV companies were founded. But how do their present day products, tech innovations and sales figures compare?
NIO Pulls Ahead Today: More Models, Swapping Batteries
Given its earlier entry launching manufacture-ready EVs in 2016, NIO has simply had more time to expand its lineup compared to Lucid‘s prolonged pivot.
In its 6 year head start on producing cars in series, NIO has now delivered over 200,000 total vehicles as of March 2022 according to company financials. Sales rocketed past pre-pandemic levels recently with the surging Chinese EV market, as this delivery chart illustrates:
Lucid didn‘t manufacture a single production car until Q3 last year. As of its latest May production update, Lucid has built over 5,000 Air sedans – although customer deliveries lag at just 1,531 vehicles.
Translating raw production into sales, NIO expanded its model catalog to 6 vehicles open for order compared to the solo Lucid Air.
For Chinese and European consumers needing capable electric transport today, NIO simply offers more options to owners seeking SUVs, crossovers or ultra-luxury supercars.
| Model | NIO | Lucid |
|---|---|---|
| Sedans | ET5, ET7 | Air |
| Sports Cars | EP9 | – |
| SUVs/Crossovers | ES6, ES7, ES8, EC6 | – |
And that‘s not the only market where NIO appears miles ahead…
Charging Showcase: NIO Battery Swaps Eclipse charging Times
Lucid rightfully attracted global buzz by stuffing the Air with a gargantuan 113 kWh battery – handily beating Tesla‘s current longest-range models.
An EPA-rated 520 miles from the Air‘s 113 kWh battery pack demonstrates masterful efficiency by Lucid‘s design team. But charging times still force Lucid owners to wait over 30 minutes for a meaningful fill up.
| Model | Battery Size | Miles Per Charge | Charging Time 0-100% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucid Air | 113 kWh | 520 miles | 34 minutes |
| NIO ET7 | 150 kWh | 621 miles | 10-15 minutes |
In late 2021, NIO dropped the ET7 luxury sedan boasting a record-shattering 621 miles of range. But the key metric isn‘t miles – it‘s minutes to 100% charge.
Thanks to NIO‘s industry-leading battery swap program, instead of plugging in, ET7 owners can simply exchange depleted battery packs for fully charged ones in just 5-10 minutes at over 1,000 swap terminals.
This charging speed combined with abundant swap station access gives NIO a commanding lead in charging convenience today. Lucid has discussed ambitions to enable charging add-ons like solar roofs for Air sedans. But across all models, sheer charging times position NIO years ahead of Lucid‘s rollout pace.
Now as both companies plan to spread globally, how do their financial war chests and production capacity compare?
Saudi Backing Accelerates Lead for Lucid
When analyzing finances and ownership, Lucid clearly holds the long-term backing of one of the world‘s deepest pockets: Saudi Arabia‘s Public Investment Fund.
The Saudi PIF acquired a 67% stake in Lucid in 2018, promptly infusing $1.3 billion to kickstart US manufacturing. As the majority shareholder, further billions in capital injections from the $500 billion sovereign wealth fund still loom likely.
Lucid has already earmarked over $1 billion for current and future expansions of its Arizona factory. Meanwhile in China, a recently signed agreement with the municipal government of Qiddiya aims to construct a Lucid manufacturing plant and R&D center for future models.
NIO certainly isn‘t starving for cash, having raised $7 billion itself from Chinese tech giants like Tencent plus Hillhouse Capital.
But analysts project Lucid‘s total financing could eclipse over $15 billion through the end of the decade to fund more affordable Air variants and energy storage products. Considering Saudi Arabia‘s effectively bottomless pockets, Lucid appears to have an unlimited budget to keep pace with Musk.
Can NIO drum up sufficient ongoing investment to fund battery swapping infrastructure keeping pace with China‘s booming EV demand? Only time will tell…
For now, Lucid‘s majority shareholder and their commitment to pumping billions into the startup keeps them slightly ahead of NIO for financial security.
Conclusion: Advantage Lucid…For Now
NIO entered the scene earlier and has since built an impressive 7 EV models supported by an industry-leading battery swap network. For sheer variety and innovative charging, NIO leads Lucid today.
However, Lucid has time on its side, deeper financial backing and its first vehicle demonstrates luxury and performance milestones that eclipse any current NIO.
Given Lucid‘s seemingly unlimited budget from Saudi backers, I believe the company has potential to out-innovate even Elon Musk in the coming decade. Lucid‘s tech talent built Tesla in the early days – and now they‘re proving their expertise building the Air and future Gravity SUV.
If Lucid‘s Arizona manufacturing ramp-up stays on pace through 2023, delivering an electric crossover at scale could establish the company as the foremost luxury EV maker globally.
For now, Lucid Motors holds a narrow lead in the race to disrupt Tesla‘s throne. But William Li and NIO continue making bold moves from Shanghai that certainly bear watching…
The EV future promises scintillating competition between scrappy startups and traditional automakers alike. As batteries improve, charging gets faster and disruptive designs emerge from China and Silicon Valley, the leaderboard could shuffle again sooner than expected.
