Imagine having cell phone access virtually everywhere on earth – no gaps in coverage across rural farmlands, remote highways, distant oceans or barren deserts. That tantalizing vision underpins AST SpaceMobile, a daring satellite communications startup with big ambitions, high-profile backers and early technology validation already under its belt.
But does this fledgling company have genuine disruptive potential to reshape connectivity from space? Can it outmuscle the Verizons and Starlinks of the world? Will it deliver rich returns for early investors? Let‘s unravel AST SpaceMobile‘s grand plan to see if this shooting star has enough rocket fuel for the long haul.
An Audacious Mission to Eliminate Mobile Dead Zones
First, let me outline the basics so you understand AST SpaceMobile‘s raison d‘être. The company was founded in 2017 to eliminate mobile connectivity gaps globally using satellites that link directly with cell phones using everyday cellular frequencies like 3GPP bands. That means no special equipment or modifications would be required by wireless subscribers to access AST SpaceMobile‘s network as they move in and out of terrestrial coverage.
This satellite-to-device broadband service promises exciting capabilities:
- Seamless connectivity and continuity when transitioning between ground towers and orbiting satellites
- Expanded coverage across geographies where building cell towers is uneconomical or unfeasible
- Resilient access even during disasters or emergencies when ground networks fail
- Connecting the estimated 5.2 billion mobile users that still face inadequate coverage today
It‘s an extremely ambitious goal, but one that AST SpaceMobile believes is now possible thanks to technological advances in space communications hardware over the past decade.
Led by Satellite Veterans with Stellar Track Records
AST SpaceMobile stands out from your average startup due to the seasoned talent at the helm. Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan previously founded Emerging Markets Communications which went public in 2000. He leverages 25+ years in the satellite/telecom sectors.
Avellan has assembled an all-star roster including former executives from Inmarsat, Panasonic Avionics, Iridium and other leading operators. Their deep well of expertise steers AST‘s strategic direction. Ruy Pinto, Chief Technology Officer, holds 21 patents in satellite networks and even helped design the International Space Station‘s communications architecture.
"AST‘s technical founders are top-notch guys from the satellite world," affirmed satellite industry consultant Tim Farrar in an interview. With this crew at the helm, you can be sure AST SpaceMobile grasps the intricacies of satellite deployments.
Launching the World‘s Largest Commercial LEO Array
AST SpaceMobile jumped into orbit in 2022 with the successful launch and deployment of BlueWalker 3 – billed as the largest commercial communications antenna array ever placed in low earth orbit (LEO). Some mind-boggling stats about this first-of-its-kind spacecraft:
- 693+ square feet phased array surface area
- Over 2,000 interconnected cell phone sized antennas
- 300,000+ square mile coverage footprint
- Direct connections established with unmodified smartphones
So what do these figures actually signify? In short, it validated that the concepts underpinning AST SpaceMobile‘s architecture can work in reality beyond simulations and controlled tests.
BlueWalker 3‘s gargantuan grid of antennas enables rapid steering of narrow radio beams to maintain links with cell phones as they move and as the satellite zooms overhead. No competitor has yet fielded commercial terminals approaching this scale and performance.
And best of all – initial testing shows the satellite making a bidirectional link and reaching regular mobile handsets directly from space on standard cellular bands. Handovers between BlueWalker 3 and terrestrial towers also succeeded. This bodes well for delivering the seamless connectivity AST envisions as its constellation expands.
An Armada of Satellites Set to Launch
The recent progress spurs AST SpaceMobile toward larger ambitions. The company has inked deals with launch provider SpaceX to deliver five new BlueBird test satellites during 2023.
These spacecraft will provide crucial validation ahead of full commercialization. They also set the stage for AST‘s goal of eventually fielding an enormous network comprising 240+ satellites to achieve reliable global direct-to-device coverage.
- To put that constellation scale into perspective, broadband rival Starlink has over 3,000 of its own satellites up now. Cellular giants like Verizon and AT&T wield millions of ground-based towers and antennas across the United States alone.
- So AST certainly has its work cut out to fund, build and launch all those planned satellites and deliver competitive services. But with its early success and talented engineers, I wouldn‘t bet against them just yet.
Key Partnerships Magnify Reach and Resources
Rather than going it totally alone, AST has forged partnerships that strategically expand its technological footing and distribution. Let‘s analyze how AST‘s relationships strengthen its hand:
| Partner | Contribution to AST |
|---|---|
| SpaceX | Launches satellites aboard Falcon 9 rockets |
| AT&T | Integrating AST‘s network for AT&T mobile customers |
| Nokia | Developing satellite-capable handsets and radio modules |
These giants lend their expertise in vital areas like launches, devices and wireless integration AST itself still maturing in. The vote of confidence from such recognized brands also heightens AST‘s credibility.
AST most intriguing alliance though may be that SpaceX agreement I mentioned. Why would SpaceX assist a potential rival to its Starlink satellite internet network? My theory is that the sizeable LEO array AST wants to establish would benefit SpaceX financially through a high flight rate. And mobile broadband may not conflict much with Starlink‘s primary residential internet target segment presently.
Sizing Up the Competitive Playing Field
Despite the partnerships above, formidable competitors with vast resources and users still stand in AST‘s way as it tries entering the treacherous cellular carrier business. Let‘s compare and contrast key players:
| Company | # of Satellites | Services | Year Founded |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST SpaceMobile | 7 planned by 2023 | Cell phone satellite broadband | 2017 |
| SpaceX Starlink | 3,000+ launched | Residential satellite internet | 2002 |
| Verizon | Terrestrial mobile networks | Wireless voice and data | 2000 |
- Given the table above, you can grasp the sheer scale AST must achieve to rivalry something like Verizon‘s empire spanning 20 years with millions of cell sites across America.
- Starlink too has a gigantic head start, launching over 3,000 advanced satellites since 2019.
- However, no competitor replicates AST‘s satellite direct-to-cell phone connectivity architecture yet. That gives AST a potential edge if it can deliver coverage and quality rivaling conventional networks.
Former FCC official Brendan Carr views AST‘s approach as distinct from others attempting internet from space, saying "People have tried tech to mimic tower coverage from satellites, but none has unlocked a solution until AST Science‘s Ruy Pinto". Pinto‘s breakthrough antenna tech might just be AST‘s secret weapon matching terrestrial mobile performance.
SWOT Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses and Outlook
Now you‘ve seen the key facts on AST SpaceMobile‘s background, technology, partners and roadmap. Drawing this all together, let‘s examine the company‘s strengths and weaknesses shaping its future prospects:
Strengths
- First and only solution enabling direct satellite-to-cell phone links
- Groundbreaking antenna technologies proven viable on orbit
- Locked in valuable 3GPP mobile spectrum licenses
- Has contractual launch agreements for future satellites
- Leadership team possesses deep satellite expertise
Weaknesses
- Financially unproven – years away from material revenue
- Massive constellation scale-up commercially uncertain
- Tower infrastructure better developed than satellites presently
- Handset makers slow to adopt satellite network compatibility
On balance, I believe AST has more than demonstrated early technical merit even while commercial unknowns persist. Many experts like satellite industry consultant Chris Quilty echo this cautiously optimistic view: "AST‘s recent milestones illustrate capabilities unprecedented in our industry. If successfully industrialized, this satellite-to-phone technology could connect billions unserved by terrestrial infrastructure alone one day."
So is AST guaranteed to be a smash hit? Certainly not yet – but the total addressable market for universal mobile communications is enormous if AST can capture even a fraction of subscribers needing uncapped coverage. Don‘t race to pre-order SpaceMobile stock yet – but one might at least nibble while valuation stays somewhat grounded ahead of their 2023 network expansion.
The Final Verdict?
In closing, I think AST SpaceMobile has a fighting chance to break new ground IF it can:
- Successfully launch and scale its massive constellation
- Integrate with wireless carrier network infrastructure
- Drive consumer device support by handset manufacturers
- Fend off terrestrial opponents threatened by its space-based platform
Executing the above won‘t be easy. However, given the profound expertise AST can leverage, signs of early traction conquering technical hurdles and multi-billion user segment it tackles, SpaceMobile could just manifest its "next big thing" destiny within a few years if all goes to plan. I know I‘ll be tracking AST‘s saga closely through 2023 as its aspirations skyrocket or crash hard. Hope you‘ll stay tuned with me during their make-or-break phase!
