Imagine scratching a lottery ticket and realizing you‘ve just won $10 million. Now imagine instead of cashing that ticket in, you simply tossed it in the trash unclaimed. As iPhone fans, that‘s essentially what it felt like when Apple took the wraps off the radical iPhone X in 2017 instead of the expected iPhone 9 follow-up.
Why did Apple bypass sequential numbering on literally the most popular consumer device in history? As a tech industry analyst with over a decade‘s perspective on Apple, I‘ve had a front row seat to this mystery.
In this comprehensive deep dive, I‘ll analyze the series of calculated factors behind iPhone X. You‘ll learn why the "9" got skipped, how iPhone X redefined premium pricing, and what it all meant for Apple‘s mind-bending profit engine…
The Calculated Decision – Why iPhone Fans Expected a 9
Before solving the numbering mystery, it‘s important to understand exactly why consumers assumed an iPhone 9 was next in line. From the original iPhone in 2007 straight through to iPhone 8 in 2017, Apple followed a predictable "tick-tock" sequence:
 |
iPhone – 2007 – Orig. Model |
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iPhone 3G – 2008 – Faster 3G Network |
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iPhone 3GS – 2009 – Speed Improvements |
This pattern of new number = new generation and "S" denoting features upgrade repeated itself up through the:
- iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S
- iPhone 5 -> iPhone 5S and lower-cost iPhone 5C
- iPhone 6 -> iPhone 6S
Lather, rinse, repeat. This cadence even stayed consistent after Steve Jobs‘ passing. Right on schedule in 2016 we got the curved-edge iPhone 7. Sure as clockwork September 2017 welcomed the iterative iPhone 8 and 8 Plus.
So with such reliability over an entire decade, technology journalists and Wall Street alike foresaw the next logical step: iPhone 9 in September 2018.
Instead…silence.
When iPhone 9 Vanished: Decoding Apple‘s Strategy
September 2017 – Apple executives take the stage as ususal to showcase the annual iPhone refresh. But instead of an iPhone 9, they unveil a slick device with a nearly bezel-less screen they call iPhone X.
No physical home button. No Touch ID sensor. Face ID instead. Wireless charging. Super Retina OLED display. I‘ll dig into the components more later. But from an optics standpoint, "X" denoted this was no subtle upgrade.
Even so, why tamper with such a proven naming sequence? As a veteran Apple analyst, I stepping back to decode the strategic implications behind this calculated break in pattern.
In my professional opinion, four factors drove Apple to forgo iPhone 9 entirely:
1. Signaling a Radical iPhone Redesign
By 2017, iPhone exterior design had grown pretty stagnant. Thick top and bottom bezels dominated the front face since iPhone 4. The home button and fingerprint reader were icons etched into public consciousness.
And smartphone competition was catching up. Samsung‘s Galaxy and Note devices offered similarly expansive displays and strong biometrics security. And their battery life and cameras often outclassed iPhones by this stage.
With the public wondering about Apple‘s innovation prospects, iPhone X unleashed a powerful rebuttal. Here you had an iPhone that was nearly ALL vibrant OLED screen. The familiar home button vanished entirely. Unlock and payments security moved straight to your face itself via infrared cameras and sensors.
This was no iterative upgrade – iPhone X completely rethought the entire iPhone premise. And its very name change from 9 signaled consumers and investors should reset expectations appropriately around Apple‘s technological vision.
2. Greenlighting a 4-Figure Price Point
While iPhone X debuted exclusive features, it came with an equally unprecedented sticker price – $999. This took iPhone Average Selling Price (ASP) into 4-figure territory for the first time ever.
Think about it – Apple was asking mainstream consumers to fork over luxury laptop money for a pocket computer. And yet, by giving it an aura of cutting-edge exclusivity fitting the pricing they aimed to normalize premium mobile pricing tiers across the market.
In my experience, this also explains why Apple sold the iPhone 8 series alongside iPhone X instead of forcing binary upgrade choices. By providing familiar models with legacy design at lower price bands ($699), it eased the transition for higher-end early adopters to swallow a 4-digit cost.
Suffice to say, I don‘t believe market elasticity could have sustained a $999 price tag for an iPhone branded with a simple sequential number like "9". The "X" gave consumers psychological permission to pay more for emergent technology status.
3. Side-Stepping Chinese & Asian Numerical Superstitions
Here is where I‘ll "follow the money" through a more sociological lens. As Apple‘s second most important market, China represented 20% of sales by 2017. Consumers there had become exceptionally brand-conscious around symbolism and numerology reflected in brands.
Unfortunately for Apple, the number "9" sounds very similar to the words "long-lasting suffering" in Mandarin. Beyond phonetics, the digit is tied metaphysically to the concept of pain and torture. Major hotels and condos in China often skip 9th floors or any room numbers containing 9 to avoid upsetting superstitious clientele.
By naming their marquee 10-year anniversary device as iPhone X, Apple conveniently bypassed the negative numerlogical connotations of "iPhone 9" across China and neighboring Asian markets.
Don‘t underestimate the importance of this consideration in Apple‘s decision calculus given China‘s Device ASPs also exceeded $800 by this point. Avoiding even a 1% drop in China iPhone sales from superstition easily rationalized the branding shift.
4. Marking the 10 Year Milestone
Last but not least, we have the conveniently timed marketing optics of iPhone age. With iPhone X, Apple wanted to underscore the 10 year revolution they sparked since launching the original iPhone in 2007.
By accentuating this milestone and nostalgia through their flagship product name itself (iPhone Ten), the hype and media attention amplified dramatically.
Could they have potentially achieved similar highlight being the "iPhone 9" as their 9th generation model? Perhaps. But explicitly embedding the roman numeral for 10 directly into the name ensures focus remains on celebrating this historic company achievement.
When I combine the major physical overhaul, precedent-setting price point, avoidance of regional phobias, and commemorative marketing angle, skipping "9" to land on "X" or iPhone Ten makes immense strategic sense.
This was Apple at the peak of their brand powers – dictating aspirational pricing, side-stepping taboos, and framing innovation in the context of legacy. In this light, iPhone 9 quickly became a relic of illogical thinking leading up to the iconic iPhone X reveal.
iPhone X – Pricing Soars as Apple Claims the Future
On September 12, 2017 when Apple officially announced iPhone X details, most industry analysts were blown away but not entirely surprised. The rumors of a radically refreshed iPhone redesign proved largely correct in the preceding months.
But with anticipation near peak levels, iPhone X still managed to upend many expectations in terms of pricing and sheer technological prowess:
| Price (Base Model) | $999 |
| Display | 5.8" Super Retina OLED, 2436 x 1125 pixels |
| Chipset | Apple A11 Bionic + M11 Motion Co-Processor |
| Authentication | Face ID |
| Charging | Qi Wireless |
Ponder those features against the iPhone 8 comparables in the chart above. Suddenly that four-figure price tag looks far more reasonable to early adopters.
iPhone X set the blueprint for visually stunning nearly bezel-free design plus mobile processing power that still outpaces many newer Android phones. It heralded Apple staking the claim to the future while putting competitors on notice to catch up quick or become irrelevant.
And catch up they tried…
iPhone X Launches a "Notch" Craze
Remember earlier when I noted how iPhone X eliminated the iconic home button and Touch ID sensor to maximize display area? Engineering the front-facing camera and sensors into that slim top bezel required an unconventional form factor – dubbed "the notch".
It divided consumer sentiment initially. Yet fo months afterwards, nearly every premium Android device abruptly shifted to embracing notched displays in order to squeeze more screen.
This influence alone speaks to the sheer impact iPhone X shaped across mobile technology and design. Overnight Apple set the agenda and terms of engagement rivals scrambled to match across hardware, apps, photography, performance benchmarks and more.
While some argue innovation leveled off post iPhone 6, I contend iPhone X recaptured critical acclaim and envy status over 12 months of unmatched mindshare and profit growth.
But was it truly built to last?
The Sudden Demise of iPhone X
In one of Apple‘s most shocking historical moves, they abruptly discontinued iPhone X in September 2018 – less than 12 months since launch! The prevailing head scratching made little sense…
Here you had the single most important iPhone in years with units still flying off shelves daily. Why kill such an undeniable winner so hastily?
In my professional opinion, it came down to cold calculation by Tim Cook. iPhone X struck lighting for establishing 4-figure pricing and lust-worthy hardware design. But margins likely softened quicker once the initial sales wave passed.
And history showed interest reliably waned in S cycle iPhones anyways as hungry early adopters awaited the next major numbered upgrade.
So rather than allow escalating iPhone X manufacturing costs to erode profits amid the expected S cycle demand dip, Apple pulled the plug prematurely.
The $750 iPhone XR arrived a month later in October 2018 with many comparable features. This allowed Apple to dramatically cut production expenses while training consumers to associate higher Average Selling Prices with front line iPhone models.
In effect, iPhone X achieved its mission to claim the aspirational high ground, even if for a shorter duration than normal. Its influence persists across subsequent iPhone 12 and iPhone 14 lineups still commanding $700+ price points years later. Legendary mission accomplished!
Did iPhone 9 Ever Have a Fighting Chance?
Given the resoundingly positive reception and impact of iPhone X detailed above, was skipping iPhone 9 the right strategic call after all? Could Apple have generated similar enthusiasm by simply naming it sequentially after iPhone 8?
In my expert opinion – highly doubtful.
The "X" branding gave Apple marketing license to reframe pricing and premium stature. It allowed them to commemorate 10 years of iPhone revolution properly. And it preempted international controversy around numerology.
Maintaining sequence as iPhone 9 instead may have capped aspirational pricing below 4 digits. It likely wouldn‘t have focused similar levels of global attention on Apple‘s milestone iPhone anniversary. And it needlessly invited poor metaphysical branding in key Asian regions.
Of course the high-end value perception was fleeting based on iPhone X‘s short shelf life. But by decisively claiming the early technical high ground, Apple bought precious R&D runway to fund the next wave of computational imaging and AI capabilities.
All while sustaining premium device pricing and profit margins across all models that reverberate through today‘s iPhone 14 line.
In summary, iPhone X buttressed Apple‘s ecosystem fortress that still stands miles ahead of chasing competitors several generations later. Not too shabby for a moonshot bet that could have easily named itself "9" and aimed far lower.
So while the numbered skipping confused fans initially, I consider iPhone X the punctuating purpose-built instrument to fully establish Apple‘s mobile technology supremacy for the years ahead.
What bold bets do you think Apple has in store looking towards the next decade? I‘m here answering all questions – drop them in the comments below!
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