How Many Jobs Have Been Replaced By Technology? (2023 Deep Dive Analysis)
Automation and artificial intelligence software has already substantially changed the job landscape across multiple industries. But what does the future of work look like as technology capabilities continue advancing? This deep dive analysis examines both the present scale and future projections of job loss due to automation while also weighing some of the key economic and labor force impacts.
Current State of Job Displacement From Technology
According to economic research, since 2000 around 5 million U.S. manufacturing jobs have been eliminated largely due to factory automation and other technology innovations that have enhanced productivity. The apparel, computer equipment and semiconductor industries experienced some of the most dramatic reductions in employment.
Similar losses occurred globally as well. A 2019 study by Oxford Economics found that 20 million manufacturing jobs have been replaced worldwide by industrial robots and automated processes just within the first two decades of the 21st century. China lost the largest share of robotic automation related jobs with over 6 million positions gone while nearly 1.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost in the automotive industry across developed nations.
Table A. Key Industries Impacted By Automation Since 2000
| Industry | Estimated Number of Jobs Lost |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing (Global) | 20 million |
| U.S. Manufacturing | 5 million |
| Automotive Industry | 1.7 million |
| Telecom Industry | 500,000 |
Beyond manufacturing, advances in information technology and artificial intelligence software has led to declines in other occupational categories as well:
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Telephone operators: Approximately 500,000 telephone operator jobs have been lost since 2000 as landlines are increasingly obsolete with the ubiquity of mobile phones and growth of digital communications.
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Data entry and filing clerks: Around 200,000 clerical and administrative data job have been lost over the past 20 years as databases and document digitization reduces need for human data processing
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Cashiers: Checkout payment automation and retail self-service innovations have contributed to about 190,000 fewer cashier jobs today compared to 2000.
Overall across all occupations, an estimated 1.8 million U.S jobs and 14 million global jobs have been lost to automation and other technological innovations since the start of the 21st century based on economic and industry data. This likely represents around a 2% drop in the total job market driven primarily by technology advancements.
While economic cycles, offshoring and other structural factors all shape employment, technology and automation adoption does appear so far to be a significant driver of job losses for human workers in certain occupational categories. However, is even more disruption still to come?
Projecting Future Job Loss From Automation Expansion
Forecasts on the future job loss impact of automation expand the scope of disruption substantially. By 2030, over 20 million more manufacturing jobs globally could be lost to robots and automated processes according to some projections.
Overall across all occupations, up to 85 million total U.S jobs may be vulnerable displacement by automation technologies over the next decade. Among OECD nations comprising most advanced economies, as many as 25% of all jobs on average could potentially be automated looking at estimates towards 2040.
The jobs at highest risk of automation include:
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Transportation: With over 4 million jobs in the U.S., self-driving vehicles could displace many driving occupations ranging from taxis, buses and delivery vehicles to public transit and long haul trucks. This would impact diverse demographic groups especially concentrated regionally.
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Food Preparation: Innovations in robotic food preparation, drone delivery, ordering kiosks and meal customization systems could automate over 5 million U.S. food service sector jobs currently held by cashiers, servers, line cooks and other restaurant roles. The food industry workforce skews younger with a majority under 35 years old.
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Office Administrative Work: Intelligent software and AI automation could transform nearly 5 million U.S. office support and clerical positions focused on high volume information processing and data tasks. secretaries, data entry specialists and library assistants represent vulnerable roles supporting common business functions.
There are also a range of additional occupations projected for substantial job loss due to advancing automation encompassing various skill levels from agriculture to warehousing and construction.
However, some occupations do appear less prone to automation over the next 10-15 years:
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Management: Higher level strategic decision making and people leadership roles seem more secure currently given the contextual judgement and social intelligence required.
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Healthcare: With need for physical dexterity, clinical knowledge and emotional skills, nearly all medical roles from physicians, nurses to home health aides remain highly difficult to automate with current AI.
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Education: The social nature and adaptiveness inherent in teaching makes this area more resistant to automation without advanced general intelligence.
So while various forecasts indicate automation and AI could substantially transform many areas of work, a sizable number of human-centric jobs should still endure over the next couple decades. But it remains unclear the total quantity and quality of jobs that may emerge.
Emergence of New Technology-Related Jobs
Recent analysis suggests that while tens of millions jobs may be lost to automation in the coming decade, enough new categories of work will also emerge to nearly offset those losses as history has often shown.
As one example, while around 4 million U.S. manufacturing production jobs have been lost to factory automation since 2000, over that same period about 9 million new healthcare jobs have been added – a field greatly benefiting from biotech innovations and healthcare IT.
More broadly for the future, research by the World Economic Forum projects that:
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Over 60 million new technology-related jobs may be created globally by 2030 as categories like AI specialists, data analysts, robotics engineers, automation experts, drone operators and IoT technicians grow in demand.
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$15 trillion in new economic value could be realized by 2030 just from expanding internet of things connectivity. This IoT development alone has potential to enable another 20 million global tech jobs according to Microsoft research.
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The renewable energy industry expects 42 million related new jobs may exist by 2050 as more nations embrace sustainable power – with retraining fossil fuel energy workers helping fill many roles.
Table B. Projections for Emerging Technology Jobs By 2030
| Occupation | Estimated New Global Jobs Created |
|---|---|
| AI & Machine Learning Related | 16 million |
| Renewable Energy | 18 million |
| IoT/Smart Devices | 20 million |
| Data Analytics & Information Security | 13 million |
| Total New Tech Jobs | 65 million+ |
But workforce transitions even amidst net job creation promises challenges. That is where policy interventions could assist.
Analyzing the Labor Force Impacts
Automating certain routine and dangerous jobs does offer economic benefits through productivity gains, lower costs and extracting new value through data analytics and connectivity. GDP per capita could increase 14% by 2030 due to these automation technologies just looking at OECD nations.
However, income inequality may also rise as higher skilled tech, management and creative roles disproportionally benefit over lower skilled occupations facing displacement risk. By one estimate, 65% of children entering school today will work in new types of jobs that largely do not exist yet. Preparing and transitioning vulnerable workers for this new economy remains imperative.
Some mechanisms to mitigate detrimental labor impacts include:
Retraining Programs
- Continual skills retraining initiatives for at-risk occupations ensuring workforce adaptability and mobility
Supplemental Income
- Temporary wage insurance for displaced workers
- Experimenting with minimum income programs
Education
- Expanded lifelong learning stipends and credits
- Greater funding for technical schools
Rather than an either full embrace or rejection of technological progress, a balanced approach of welcoming innovation while crafting supportive policies to smooth workforce transitions seems most pragmatic.
The Future of Human Work
In conclusion, existing evidence clearly illustrates automation and AI has already substantially changed the job market across multiple industries contributing to around 20 million global job losses since 2000. Further disruption still lies ahead as continual advancement in robotics, predictive analytics, intelligent assistants and other technologies spreads transforming nearly every sector.
While the pace and scope of job automation emerging through the 2020s carries uncertainty with forecasts ranging widely, clearly certain lower skilled routine jobs face growing displacement risks. Yet calls to wholly resist innovation seem impractical and likely counterproductive given the broader economic benefits. Instead, focusing policy interventions on assisting worker transitions through this period of turbulence to ensure the gains of technology progress broadly manifests across income levels offers a constructive middle path balancing productive economic dynamism with ethical social inclusion.