Earlier this month, Li Keqiang’s death came just over a month after his resignation as China’s Premier. While officials stated his health had long been poor, some question the exact cause, spurring discussion around deeper implications. As an outside observer, I lack enough verified insider knowledge to make firm accusations. However, as a thoughtful analyst aiming for objectivity, I can summarize the key perspectives circulating without inflaming rumors.
Suspicions Sparked by Circumstances of Death
Li Keqiang’s death on October 31, 2022 occurred in Beijing, shortly after China‘s National Day following the Party Congress. Earlier in the year, Li had surprisingly announced his retirement from the Politburo Standing Committee while still eligible for another term.
Officials stated his chronic illnesses as the reason, but Li himself did not mention health issues in his farewell speech. This discretion, combined with his death mere weeks later at age 67, sparked skepticism. With limited transparency on the exact cause and no public memorial service, theories spread of foul play by political rivals.
Some even shared an ominous historical parallel to Leon Trotsky. The influential Bolshevik leader was forced into exile by Stalin after losing a power struggle, later brutally assassinated by an attacker connected to Soviet intelligence. However, while intrigue swirls in Beijing too, no concrete evidence ties Li’s passing to anything beyond natural causes.
The Role of Shanghai Authorities
Additional theories involve Shanghai party chief Li Qiang’s recent elevation to the PSC after Xi secured his third term. Li Qiang oversaw the heavy COVID lockdowns in Shanghai that triggered extensive public outcry earlier this year. Some allege those botched policies were meant intentionally to weaken Li Keqiang’s leadership and Shanghai faction.
Reports that Shanghai authorities took over arrangements and security for Li Keqiang after his death, potentially even isolating Xi, also raised eyebrows. But without transparency, the truth remains uncertain. While factions clearly competed behind the scenes, the changeovers may have simply aligned with officials’ geographic responsibilities.
Response Seen as Disrespectful
Finally, quicker than expected cremation and lack of affirmation or wreaths from top Beijing leaders sparked accusations of intentional post-mortem disrespect. Historical Chinese tradition places importance on honoring the dead through ceremony. As Li stayed popular with the public until his retirement, this fuelled rumors of offending other party elites.
However, norms differ between modern officials compared to traditional mourning periods. While open acknowledgment may show strength, overly highlighting rivals’ passing could also signal weakness or illegitimacy of current leadership too. As with many sensitive internal matters, the CCP revealed little publicly.
Implications for China’s Immediate Future
Ultimately Li Keqiang’s death itself matters less than what it reveals about perceived instability after this power transition, regardless of actual cause. Signals of excessive internal cutthroat competition, policy gridlock or public discontent could weaken markets and global confidence in China’s future as fears spread.
If mishandled, it risks accelerating economic slowdown or capital flight. This heightens pressure on Xi’s leadership to present national unity and social stability to key domestic and international audiences. How smoothly appointments and consolidation of authority proceeds bears monitoring.
Of course, the CCP has weathered many transitions and events that outside observers assumed could not be managed before. And the truth likely holds shades of gray rather than simplistic hero vs villain narratives. Perhaps tragedy can sow the seeds of reflection for those in power to align policy closer with people’s welfare.
While some degree of groupthink and information control permeates any large system, diverse perspectives that interpret the same events differently can still constructively coexist in China’s philosophies. As with leaders everywhere, time tests their true motives and character. But speculation without facts poisons the discourse for all. With compassion and patience, light can yet emerge to guide the way ahead.