In 2016, CEO Elon Musk penned an ambitious manifesto titled "Master Plan, Part Deux" – envisioning Tesla as far more than a car company, but instead an integrated sustainable energy and transportation titan pushing the boundaries of technology and innovation. This four-pronged strategy focused on:
- Seamless integration of solar generation capabilities and battery storage solutions
- Rapid expansion of electric vehicle production capacity across vehicle segments
- Development of advanced self-driving functionality exceeding human driver capabilities
- Enabling autonomy to allow vehicles to earn money providing ride share services
Now six years later, let‘s assess progress toward these key pillars that Musk presented as core to Tesla‘s pursuit of advancing cleaner, autonomous transportation.
Grading Tesla Energy Solutions: High Hopes but Slower Adoption
Remember, Tesla acquired solar installation company SolarCity back in 2016 partially to enable the integrated sustainable energy vision central to Musk‘s updated blueprint for Tesla. Branded products like the Powerwall home battery and Solar Roof tiles embedded with solar cells promised an ecosystem allowing consumers to cleanly produce, store, and leverage renewable electricity.
However, this component of Musk‘s plan has clearly lagged expectations in terms of rollout, revenue growth, and public reception.
Tesla Energy Sales Performance:
| Year | Total Tesla Revenues | % From Energy Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $11.8 billion | 6% |
| 2018 | $21.5 billion | 7% |
| 2019 | $24.6 billion | 6% |
| 2020 | $31.5 billion | 6% |
| 2021 | $53.8 billion | 5% |
| 2022 | $81.5 billion | 4.8% |
While Tesla itself boomed in valuation and sales, its solar and storage efforts failed to scale comparably. Tesla Energy accounted for between 4-7% of total revenues since 2017 – never reaching the double-digit share targeted internally according to former employees.
Delays plagued promises made around integrated offerings too. Tesla didn‘t begin installing its sleek Solar Roof product until 2019, admitting it had to divert resources to meet soaring Model 3 electric vehicle demand. But just two years later, the company hiked pricing on installed Solar Roof projects significantly while making Powerwall purchases mandatory with new solar panel systems. Customer complaints and lawsuits ensued, undercutting public trust.
For an element considered crucial to Musk‘s vision of sustainability and a key driver of the SolarCity acquisition valued at $2.6 billion, the slow progress and ethical issues are highly concerning. Realizing Musk‘s dream of seamlessly integrated clean energy infrastructure clearly remains a work in progress for Tesla Energy as it deals with the practical challenges of ramping up such complex operations.
EV Lineup Expands Impressively Despite Some Hiccups
However, Tesla has undeniably delivered when it comes to rapidly scaling and expanding electric vehicle manufacturing capability and variety. Despite supply chain issues and battery shortfalls making headlines, Tesla booked estimated *1.3 million EV deliveries in 2022 – far more than competitors like China‘s BYD at just 911,000.
Early models like the genre-defining luxury Model S sedan and falcon-winged Model X SUV have both seen major refreshes maintaining competitiveness while more affordable offerings cater to mass market buyers. The Model 3 became the world‘s best selling EV shortly after its launch in 2017. Its crossover SUV counterpart, the Model Y, followed suit soon after hitting the market in early 2020.
In 2022, Tesla introduced revamped versions of both models boasting upgraded computing power and extended battery range estimates topping 400 miles for Long Range variants. Cybertruck reservations have also soared past 1 million demonstrating the uniqueness of Tesla‘s designs connects with buyers. Once Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin ramp to full capacity, Tesla seems poised to dominate global electric car sales for years barring an unlikely collapse in demand.
On the commercial transportation front, Tesla has admittedly struggled with repeated delays around the launch of its Semi truck model for freight haulers. But the automaker recently reaffirmed initial deliveries of the long-awaited vehicle would begin in 2023 – a positive sign after years of production setbacks.
While the timeline and order of introduced models diverged markedly from the 2016 plan, Tesla ultimately delivered the expanded electric vehicle lineup and manufacturing muscle to back up Musk‘s lofty aspirations of accelerating the industry‘s shift to sustainable transportation.
Autonomy Dreams Stymied by Technical Challenges
Elon Musk‘sSELF proclaimed interest in autonomy and passion for using software to enable vehicles to operate themselves has been evident for years through Tesla‘s Autopilot driver assistance software released back in 2015. However, his 2016 prediction that truly autonomous cross country trips would be possible in just 1 year has proven wildly inaccurate.
Tesla‘s Full Self Driving (FSD) package remains classified as Level 2 autonomy by SAE International standards – well short of the full autonomy promised. By definition, Level 2 vehicles can steer, accelerate and brake automatically in some situations but require constant human supervision whereas Musk suggested Level 5 autonomy enabling unattended self-driving was nearly at hand.
Experts argue Musk dramatically underestimated challenges involved teaching algorithms to handle unpredictable roadway scenarios at scale and edge case driving encounters involving complex judgement calls. Recent reports revealed Musk himself has conceded internally that "generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real world AI" – a tacit admission vision outpaced technical capabilities by a significant margin.
Critics and regulators also remain skeptical that Tesla is taking responsible steps by testing unfinished "beta" self-drive software on public roads to refine. The California DMV has accused Tesla of misleading customers on FSD and Autopilot‘s abilities. Federal vehicle safety officials are evaluating whether Tesla‘s approach fails to adequately protect motorists and pedestrians from harm. And worries around liability from collisions threaten to further slow autonomy deployment until resolved.
While Tesla‘s vehicles gather immense volumes of visual data from cameras that may someday enable full autonomy, translating that into dependable driving software has proven far more difficult than Musk ever expected. For now, his dreams of complete vehicle autonomy enabling futuristic mobility models like self-driving ride sharing fleets remain parked in the realm of fantasy rather than reality.
Conclusion: Vast Potential, but Execution is Key
Reviewing Elon Musk‘s Master Plan Part Deux with several years of hindsight makes clear that while Tesla delivered on expanding electric vehicle manufacturing and choice enormously, other pillars of his grand vision for sustainable transportation solutions saw mixed results at best so far. Tesla Energy and Solar have struggled to scale smoothly and profitably while fully self-driving cars missed the mark on technology readiness by years according to experts.
Yet Musk undoubtedly created an automaker with technology, range advantages and brand cachet that made electric vehicles finally appealing to luxury buyers and the mass market. If Tesla can complement its EV success by shoring up shortcomings on the renewable energy front and responsibly hone autonomous functionality, it may still transform industries as profoundly as Musk‘s 2016 manifesto imagined. For a company as ambitious as Tesla, the road to realizing such disruptive, futuristic goals was never likely to follow a straight line. So while skepticism is warranted based on missed timetables and promises thus far, writing off Musk‘s vision entirely remains premature given the automaker‘s track record of innovation against long odds.
