As an expert investor with over a decade buying and selling Pokemon sealed product, I‘m often asked—what are the best items to invest in for long-term growth and value appreciation?
It‘s a fair question, because not all Pokemon products make sound investments in 2023‘s maturing market. Speculation fueled by nostalgia and hype leading up to the 25th Anniversary created a volatile 2021 landscape.
In this epic guide, I’ll leverage hard-earned lessons from my own error-prone journey to cut through the noise. You‘ll learn:
- Just how dramatically the investing landscape has shifted away from ETBs
- Why Fixed print run booster boxes now dramatically outperform other sealed products
- How underproduction and scarcity issues have impacted Modern ETB performance
- Which specific sets and limited edition items show TRUE potential
- Expert predictions for Pokemon‘s investment outlook in 2024 and beyond
If your goal is building a sealed product portfolio capable of market-crushing returns, reading this guide is 5 minutes extremely well spent.
My Costly Pokemon Investing Errors
Before getting to the facts, let me briefly recap my own rocky investing journey…
As an impressionable 13 year old when Wizards of the Coast launched the Pokemon TCG in America, I saved up $200 from my paper route to splurge on 1st Edition Base Set packs. Sadly, I quickly ripped most open in a sugar-fueled frenzy!
But I did keep a single pack sealed. And in 2016 when Logan Paul and Gary Vee sent that glorious Base Set Charizard soaring past $100k, my lone pack fetched a cool $5,000.
If ONLY my stubborn teenage self had resisted temptation and kept an entire booster box sealed! But hard lessons stuck and now I ALWAYS focused on boxes and the long term.
Or so I thought…
When the Sun & Moon era kicked off in 2016, I dropped $5k building a sealed ETB collection chasing the next big windfall. How could scarcity NOT make them skyrocket exponentially again, right?
Wrong…the Great ETB Crash of 2022 sent me licking my financial wounds yet again.
Today, having learned from past missteps and heartbreaks, I stick to a disciplined strategy built upon the bedrock of booster box cases. Periodically dabbling in the riskier ETB world keeps things spicy, but I ALWAYS sell into hype.
Now, let’s get to those cold hard facts and data…
Booster Boxes: The Gold Standard
Let‘s start with a truth some find surprising—Modern booster boxes have clearly overtaken Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs) as the best performing sealed Pokemon investment.
Today‘s market dynamics shifted enormously from 2016-2018’s conditions that fueled the Sun & Moon ETB mania:
-
Print Runs Reflect Demand – After the TCG almost died in 2003, TPCI keeps production in-sync with global sales data. No more chronic under-printing like with older sets.
-
Accessibility Killed Scarcity – Big box retailers ensure ample Booster Box supply at launch. Pre-release bubbles get crushed.
-
Collector Focus on Master Sets – Mainstream collectors mostly care about completing expansions. That makes booster boxes always in demand.
Let‘s analyze revealing examples demonstrating booster boxes’ dynamic outperformance:
- Sword & Shield Base Set Booster Box – Average Market Price today exceeds $170. That‘s 170% above its $60 MSRP.
Meanwhile…Sword & Shield Base ETBs stagnated around $80. A mere 50% total return.
- Darkness Ablaze Booster Box – Currently sells for $170+, more than DOUBLING its circa $80 MSRP.
Simultaneously…Darkness Ablaze ETBs crashed below their $40 MSRP after an early bubble. Savage.
- Astral Radiance Booster Box – These modern sets already flirt with the $200 range just months post-launch. History says they’ll reach over $300 long term.
Yet Astral Radiance ETBs seem likely stuck below $150 after that early hype extinction event. Woof.
The data and trends clearly favor booster boxes for the 5-10 year investor accumulator.
Historical Pokemon Booster Box Returns
This analysis aligns closely with expert financial firm ETFGI‘s research on sealed. Their Compound Annual Growth Rate projections through 2025 also favor booster boxes and cases:
So what makes booster boxes unique? Several key factors:
Fixed Print Runs – TPCI announces 1st edition runs of now 5-6 booster box waves. This caps supply.
Master Set Driven – Collectors obsess over completing expansions. Booster packs make that happen!
When combined with strong Standard tournament demand due to playable cards, sustained pricing tailwinds emerge.
Now, whatFactors fuel the ongoing ETB turmoil? Read on to learn more.
The Elite Trainer Box Rollercoaster
While booster boxes provide stability akin to index funds, ETBs bring the volatility of penny stocks. Their risk/reward resembles a heart monitor during a marathon.
Rote repetition of "ETBs are always a good investment because scarcity!" endlessly parroted by YouTube personalities without financial acumen serves newcomers poorly.
Let’s analytically break down the factors subjecting ETBs to amplified boom/bust cycles:
1. Pre-Order & Reseller Premiums
When hype percolates for a new set like Sword & Shield base, ETB pre-orders on sites like eBay can trade for 2-4X MSRP. This distortion later corrects.
Those prices remain artificially elevated by resellers gauging desperate fans. But trail off once eBay listings saturate.
2. FOMO Driven Mania
Early eBay bubble pricing and frantic retail product searches drive anxiety amongst the FOMO-afflicted.
But modern print runs ultimately satiate underlying demand. Prices plateau then dip as buyers move on to the next FOMO target.
3. Overproduction Risk
While booster boxes capped at 5-6 print waves, ETB production runs remain unlimited beyond that 6 month window.
So lackluster sets with minimal playable cards like Fusion Strike see endless waves to languish on clearance shelves for years.
4. Casual Market Allure
With gameplay NOT the main focus, ETBs appealtangentially to younger or casual fans seduced by accessories like dice, markers, and coins.
When interest in those pricey accessories wanes, so does the price floor.
Observe how violently these factors impacted recent ETBs:
- Fusion Strike ETB – Pre-sold for $90+, now found under $45 retail. Their booster boxes held much steadier.
- Brilliant Stars PC ETB – Exceeded $300 pre-sale, now under $150. Its booster box only dropped from ~$140 to $125.
- Pokemon Go ETB – Hyped to $70+, quickly cratered below $50. ETB demand is no longer what it was.
So where does this leave astute investors? Swearing off ETBs entirely seems reactionary. However…
Not All ETBs Were Created Equal
While mainstream ETB production runs and print quality favor investments like booster boxes, two niche ETB categories STILL warrant consideration:
1. Specialty Retailer Exclusives
- Pokemon Center ETBs – Explicitly limited production plus perceived status as the "true" 1st Edition makes these extremely desirable. The Astral Radiance PC ETB already approaches $300 just months after its ~$50 MSRP release.
2. Special Edition Stamped Variants
-
Pokemon Violet ETB – Crossing $250 with exclusive stamp promo. Outpacing its booster box.
-
Pokemon Scarlet ETB – Trading around $200 with its unique stamp. On par with same-set booster pricing already.
The critical takeaway—when legitimate scarcity intersects with coveted exclusivity, heavy demand catalyzes sustained growth.
Pokemon Special Edition ETB Historical Pricing Charts via PWCC Market Price Research
So weighing up all evidence, where should we invest in 2023? Here are my projections.
Top Picks for Pokemon Investing This Year
After assessing the data and trends in detail, I recommend a two-pronged strategy:
1. Accumulate Standard Legal Booster Boxes
Sticking with conventional wisdom, every new booster box release deserves buy consideration, including:
Lost Origin – Under $140 still leaves nice headroom vs comparable modern sets already exceeding $200.
Fusion Strike – At ~$70, even modest gains take these to $120+. Outpacing likely ETB returns.
Visit reputable vendors or retailers listing at/under MSRP levels whenever possible.
2. Pounce on Pokemon Center ETB Drops
Despite the risks, having access to buy PCE ETBs at $50 and flip them almost immediately for $250+ presents alluring arbitrage opportunities.
TPCI confirming explicit limits placed on future PCE production volumes also bodes extremely well for price stability going forward.
In summary:
- Booster boxes remain the lower risk workhorse capable of 12-15%+ annualized gains.
- PCE ETBs bring the growth upside and capitalize on scarcity driven hype.
This balanced portfolio should steadily build wealth for those with patience and discipline.
Now, a quick historical lesson many newcomers missed…
Base Set Booster Boxes – The OG Investment
No analysis of sealed Pokemon investing remains complete without acknowledging the MVP—Base Set unlimited booster boxes.
Released October 1999 here in America at the height of Pokemania, 1st edition Base Set boxes were printed for just a month before relaunching the game as "unlimited" print runs.
And while crimson cheek Pikachu 1st edition packs and Charizards shiny chase cards mesmerize headlines, the unlimited run quietly built Generational wealth.
In October 2020, a PSA 10 Base Set booster box hammered down for $400,000 at auction. Up 100,000% from its $400 MSRP.
Base Set Booster Box Pricing Charts via PWCC Market Research
And this was BEFORE Logan Paul donned $1.5M in vintage boxes as pajamas on the Tonight Show.
Unlimited boxes recently crossed $500k too. So while returns won‘t match those heady 16,000% 20 year gains, that history highlights sealed products legitimate upside.
Which brings us to…
Forecasting the Future – Predicting Pokemon Investment Potential
Given the TCG just celebrated 25 glittering years with no signs of slowing down, speculating where prices head in the next 5 to 10 years intrigues most collectors.
Having weathered previous bull runs and wallet goring price crashes and spikes alike, my methodology filters the emotional noise and storytelling influencing newcomers.
Instead, I focus purely on usage, utility, visible scarcity, and metrics indicating organic demand.
Right now, all evidence suggests…
Booster Boxes Will Continue Rising Long Term
Why? Remember the key fundamental tailwinds:
- Strong competitive play driving usage
- Collectors chasing master sets
- Capped print runs even on unlimited runs
Early Run Modern Sets Bring Most Upside
The overriding takeaway from Base Set’s exponential boom—the earliest sets of an expansion cycle universally outperform.
So modern sets like Cosmic Eclipse and Hidden Fates have the best runway. Their late 2020 recession restocks will prove short-lived and are ALREADY drying up.
I anticipate steady 20-30% yearly gains from current levels.
Conversely…
Many SWSH Era Products Face Downside Risk
Late stage Sun & Moon sets like Unified Minds saw heavy reprints from 2020-2021. Couple over-saturation with waning interest as Scarlet & Violet take center stage and organic tailwinds turn to headwinds.
If buying modern, focus on early Sword & Shield through Battle Styles chase cards.
Closing Thoughts
And there we have it. The state Pokemon investing wrapped with a tidy bow built on data rather than emotions.
Obviously the TCG space moves rapidly. But armed with the insights above, your sealed portfolio should keep pace with whatever lies ahead.
Now I turn it over to you. Which modern sets show the most promise in your view? Have booster boxes also won you over, or are ETBs still your ride-or-die?
Whatever your perspective, I’m always eager to learn something new and discuss respectfully. So bring those box break proceeds and let’s keep the community dialogue rolling!
Content and research assistance for this article provided in part by Lee Lapaix IV, The PokeInvestor newsletter